Value
7.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.9 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
NRK · Why this verdict
Why Nuveen New York AMT-Free Qualit (NRK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
This is a high-quality, attractively valued holding with positive momentum, but weak growth and a stretched position near its 52-week high leave near-term risk/reward geometry unattractive.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The holding screens as a high-quality business with strong margins of 36% and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Quality breakdown | Margins should hold at or above 36% and the Piotroski F-Score should remain near its current high level over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong margin and quality metrics can coexist with a shrinking business, since revenue is separately flagged as declining. | ||
The stock screens attractively valued, with a very low PEG ratio of 0.01. Valuation breakdown | The valuation should continue to screen cheap or re-rate higher toward fair value over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low PEG ratio can be an artifact of minimal or negative growth expectations rather than a genuine bargain, especially given the flagged declining revenue. | ||
Revenue is declining at a 2% rate, weighing on the otherwise strong quality profile. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive over the next 12 months for this concern to resolve. | →Stable |
| CounterFor an income-oriented holding, a modest 2% revenue decline is a secondary consideration behind yield stability and capital preservation. | ||
The stock shows positive momentum, trading above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, but is now only 0.7% below its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price should continue holding above the 200-day moving average with sustained volume accumulation over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeing this close to a 52-week high with weak growth underneath raises the risk that the current momentum is running ahead of the fundamentals and could stall or reverse. | ||
The technical take-profit level of $10.58 sits below the current price of $10.72, implying negative upside against a stop-loss just below at $10.54. Targets | A revised take-profit level should move meaningfully above the current price to restore a positive risk/reward skew over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFor a holding with a very large stated dividend distribution, price-target geometry off short-term technical levels may understate the total-return case for holding. | ||
The holding screens as a high-quality business with strong margins of 36% and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should hold at or above 36% and the Piotroski F-Score should remain near its current high level over the next 12 months.
CounterStrong margin and quality metrics can coexist with a shrinking business, since revenue is separately flagged as declining.
The stock screens attractively valued, with a very low PEG ratio of 0.01.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation should continue to screen cheap or re-rate higher toward fair value over the next 12 months.
CounterA very low PEG ratio can be an artifact of minimal or negative growth expectations rather than a genuine bargain, especially given the flagged declining revenue.
Revenue is declining at a 2% rate, weighing on the otherwise strong quality profile.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive over the next 12 months for this concern to resolve.
CounterFor an income-oriented holding, a modest 2% revenue decline is a secondary consideration behind yield stability and capital preservation.
The stock shows positive momentum, trading above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, but is now only 0.7% below its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should continue holding above the 200-day moving average with sustained volume accumulation over the next 12 months.
CounterBeing this close to a 52-week high with weak growth underneath raises the risk that the current momentum is running ahead of the fundamentals and could stall or reverse.
The technical take-profit level of $10.58 sits below the current price of $10.72, implying negative upside against a stop-loss just below at $10.54.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- A revised take-profit level should move meaningfully above the current price to restore a positive risk/reward skew over the next 12 months.
CounterFor a holding with a very large stated dividend distribution, price-target geometry off short-term technical levels may understate the total-return case for holding.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.6/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 6.5 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| beta | 9.2 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 7.4%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.6) with weak momentum (3.8)
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 9.2; weakest: Growth at 2.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 9.2, Quality at 8.6, and Technical at 7.5; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Momentum at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Strong Margins
Trip ifGross margin compresses below 20% from the current 36%.
- P2Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifThe PEG ratio rises above 1.5 from the current 0.01.
- P3Declining Revenue Growth Concern
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% from the current -2% decline.
- P4Positive Momentum Near 52 Week High
Trip ifPrice falls more than 5% below the 200-day moving average, reversing the current uptrend.
- P5Unattractive Risk Reward Geometry
Trip ifThe projected take-profit level rises above $11.50, exceeding the current $10.72 price by more than 7%.