Value
6.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 2.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.8x
- ▸PEG: 5.92
NRIM · Why this verdict
Why Northrim BanCorp (NRIM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A stated margin of safety and strong fundamentals are offset by a reached analyst target with limited upside, a mixed earnings record with weak growth, and a newly negative reward/risk reading, arguing for trimming the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The position is flagged as carrying a 37% margin of safety, suggesting a valuation cushion versus intrinsic value. Bull case | The margin of safety should be preserved or widen as the price stays below intrinsic value over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA stated margin of safety can be undermined if weak growth persists, since a slowly growing business may deserve a lower intrinsic value than the estimate assumes. | ||
The analyst price target has effectively been reached, leaving limited upside remaining at roughly 6% below the noted target level. Bear case | A higher analyst target should emerge to reopen upside room over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage means the current target may simply be stale, and a re-rating higher could occur quickly if coverage expands or improves. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in two of its last four reported quarters and is separately flagged for weak growth. Bear case | The company should return to a consistent beat pattern, with earnings surprise turning positive and the growth score improving, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 50/50 beat-miss split alongside strong margins and a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score suggests the underlying business remains fundamentally sound despite uneven quarterly results. | ||
The reward/risk setup has turned negative, with an asymmetry ratio of -0.5, meaning the downside to the stop-loss now outweighs the upside to the take-profit level. Warnings | The reward/risk ratio should turn positive again, with upside to the take-profit level exceeding the downside to the stop-loss, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA negative reward/risk reading can persist in a range-bound bank stock without necessarily signaling a genuine deterioration in the underlying business. | ||
Implied volatility is elevated at 87%, reflecting the market's pricing of meaningful uncertainty in the shares. Risk breakdown | Implied volatility should compress well below 87% as uncertainty resolves over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated implied volatility around earnings dates for a small regional bank can be temporary and doesn't necessarily reflect a persistent risk premium. | ||
The position is flagged as carrying a 37% margin of safety, suggesting a valuation cushion versus intrinsic value.
↑ImprovingBull case
- Expectation
- The margin of safety should be preserved or widen as the price stays below intrinsic value over the next 12 months.
CounterA stated margin of safety can be undermined if weak growth persists, since a slowly growing business may deserve a lower intrinsic value than the estimate assumes.
The analyst price target has effectively been reached, leaving limited upside remaining at roughly 6% below the noted target level.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- A higher analyst target should emerge to reopen upside room over the next 12 months.
CounterLight analyst coverage means the current target may simply be stale, and a re-rating higher could occur quickly if coverage expands or improves.
The company has missed earnings estimates in two of its last four reported quarters and is separately flagged for weak growth.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company should return to a consistent beat pattern, with earnings surprise turning positive and the growth score improving, over the next 12 months.
CounterA 50/50 beat-miss split alongside strong margins and a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score suggests the underlying business remains fundamentally sound despite uneven quarterly results.
The reward/risk setup has turned negative, with an asymmetry ratio of -0.5, meaning the downside to the stop-loss now outweighs the upside to the take-profit level.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The reward/risk ratio should turn positive again, with upside to the take-profit level exceeding the downside to the stop-loss, over the next 12 months.
CounterA negative reward/risk reading can persist in a range-bound bank stock without necessarily signaling a genuine deterioration in the underlying business.
Implied volatility is elevated at 87%, reflecting the market's pricing of meaningful uncertainty in the shares.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Implied volatility should compress well below 87% as uncertainty resolves over the next 12 months.
CounterElevated implied volatility around earnings dates for a small regional bank can be temporary and doesn't necessarily reflect a persistent risk premium.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.5 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.9 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -20%
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $89,664 (0.017% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 0.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.6 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 1.8 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| beta | 7.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:81d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.13
Upside
-0.7%
Downside
5.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE, FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.13 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.6, Sentiment at 6.2, and Insider at 6.1; the weakest are Growth at 1.9, Catalyst at 4.1, and Technical at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Margin Of Safety Valuation Cushion
Trip ifThe margin of safety compresses below 10% from the current 37%.
- P2Limited Upside Analyst Target Reached
Trip ifThe take-profit target rises above $30.00, exceeding the current $27.12 price by more than 10%.
- P3Consecutive Misses Weak Growth
Trip ifEarnings surprise turns positive for 2 consecutive quarters and the growth score rises above 5.0 from the current 3.1.
- P4Negative Reward Risk Asymmetry
Trip ifThe reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.0 from the current -0.5.
- P5Elevated Implied Volatility Risk
Trip ifImplied volatility compresses below 50% from the current 87%.