Skip to main content
NPBNorthpointe Bancshares, Inc.Sell6.0·$17.19-0.17%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

NPB shows strong 28% revenue growth and an attractive valuation versus peers, but the stock trades near its analyst target with limited remaining upside and a recent pair of earnings misses tempers the growth story.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Vs PeersDeteriorating
  • Strong Revenue Growth ProfileDeteriorating
  • Positive News Sentiment TailwindImproving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Northpointe Bancshares, Inc. (NPB) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellValueModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. At $17.19, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 5.9%.

Northpointe Bancshares is a Grand Rapids, Michigan-based bank holding company for Northpointe Bank, the largest bank headquartered in Michigan, operating nationwide through a digital-first mortgage and deposit platform with loan offices in 25 cities across 15 states. Revenue... Read more

$17.19+5.9% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#124 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield0.58%Payout4.31%sustainable
Stop $16.25Target $18.20(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$21.42+24.6%3 analysts
$18.20our TP
$17.19price
$21.42mean
$22

Sell if holding. At $17.19, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 5.9%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 110d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.

About Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.

Northpointe Bank, the largest bank headquartered in Michigan, completed its February 2025 initial public offering on the NYSE under the ticker NPB after being founded in 1999 as a mortgage portfolio lender in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. As of December 31, 2025, the bank served clients in all 50 states and the District of Columbia through a primarily digital platform, generating 30.4 percent of 2025 revenue from its Mortgage Purchase Program warehouse-lending business.

Northpointe earns revenue through two segments: the Mortgage Purchase Program (MPP), which provides independent mortgage bankers nationwide with collateralized mortgage purchase facilities as an alternative to traditional warehouse lending before originated loans are sold into the secondary market via Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae or institutional investors, and Retail Banking, spanning residential mortgage origination through Consumer Direct and Traditional Retail channels, digital deposit banking priced in the top 25 of nationwide deposit rates, and loan servicing for FNMA, FHLMC and FHLB. Approximately 99 percent of the loan portfolio is collateralized by real estate, and brokered deposits, at $2.64 billion, funded 54.1 percent of total deposits as of December 31, 2025. The company also specializes in first-lien home equity lines tied to a demand deposit sweep account, marketed as its proprietary All-in-One loan product.

Show full overview

Northpointe's reliance on brokered deposits for more than half of its funding base exposes it to a liquidity risk uncommon among traditional community banks: the 10-K cautions that brokered depositors may not renew maturing deposits, forcing the bank to pay higher rates to retain or replace that funding, and that losing its well-capitalized status would bar it from accepting or renewing brokered deposits without an FDIC waiver. The company also depends on third-party participants who buy participation interests in MPP facilities to manage concentration risk and provide funding; those participants are not obligated to renew their positions, and their withdrawal could force Northpointe to fund MPP commitments itself or curtail the business.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 2026110d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 51%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.9%
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.4
P/E (Fwd)6.0
Mkt Cap$594M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn35.2%
ROE14.8%
Rev Growth9.8%
Beta
Dividend0.58%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.5
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 110d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.75Resistance $19.68

Price Targets

$16
$18
A.Upside+5.9%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 1.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (110d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NPB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $17.19, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 5.9%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $16.25. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NPB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.20 (+5.9% upside). Prior stop was $16.25. Stop-loss: $16.25.

What are the risks of investing in NPB?

Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative momentum.

Is NPB overvalued or undervalued?

Northpointe Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.4 (forward 6.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NPB?

7 analysts cover NPB with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Northpointe Bancshares, Inc. do?Northpointe Bancshares is a Grand Rapids, Michigan-based bank holding company for Northpointe Bank, the largest bank...

Northpointe Bancshares is a Grand Rapids, Michigan-based bank holding company for Northpointe Bank, the largest bank headquartered in Michigan, operating nationwide through a digital-first mortgage and deposit platform with loan offices in 25 cities across 15 states. Revenue comes from Mortgage Purchase Program warehouse lending (30.4% of 2025 revenue) and Retail Banking (residential lending, digital deposits, loan servicing), with real estate collateralizing about 99% of its loan portfolio.

Related stocks: CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.) · BHB (Bar Harbor Bankshares, Inc.) · NBBK (NB Bancorp, Inc.) · NBN (Northeast Bank)
Home Stocks NPB

Latest news

Latest News

Dars.gov.et10d ago
Quiver Quantitative4d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance4d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance4d agoEarnings
MarketBeat4d agoEarnings
TipRanks4d agoEarnings
TradingView4d agoEarnings
Stock Titan4d ago
Yahoo Finance11d agoEarnings
TradingView11d agoEarnings
Moomoo12d ago
TradingView5d agoEarnings
조선일보12d ago
Benzinga2d ago
Benzinga3d agoEarnings
Benzinga4d ago
Benzinga4d agoEarnings
Benzinga23d agoAnalyst