Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
NMM · Why this verdict
Why Navios Maritime Partners (NMM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score7.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Navios has beaten analyst earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 28.3%, reflecting strong shipping demand and disciplined fleet management during this cycle. Earnings | Navios continues delivering positive earnings surprises above 10% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping earnings are driven by spot rate cycles that can reverse sharply within a single quarter, making a sustained beat streak difficult to extrapolate. | ||
Navios Maritime trades at a forward P/E of 4.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.03, placing it among the most cheaply valued shipping companies in its peer group and suggesting the market is pricing in significant risk to future earnings. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E re-rates above 6x within 12 months as the market recognizes the earnings quality improvement in the shipping cycle. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping company valuations are structurally low due to extreme earnings cyclicality, and cheap multiples can persist for years when freight rates decline. | ||
Free cash flow is negative 24% relative to net income, flagging a significant gap between reported earnings and actual cash generation, which reduces confidence in the sustainability of earnings and distributions. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow improves to at least positive 50% of net income within 12 months as capital spending normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterMarine shipping companies routinely invest in fleet renewal which temporarily suppresses free cash flow relative to net income without impairing the underlying earnings power. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 3.37 shows that options traders are heavily positioned for downside in Navios, indicating widespread concern that the current price and earnings trajectory may not hold. Options | The put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 3 months as earnings confirm the fundamental thesis and reduce defensive hedging. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put-to-call ratios in small-cap shipping companies may reflect limited liquidity in the options market rather than genuine directional conviction from large investors. | ||
Navios has beaten analyst earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 28.3%, reflecting strong shipping demand and disciplined fleet management during this cycle.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Navios continues delivering positive earnings surprises above 10% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterShipping earnings are driven by spot rate cycles that can reverse sharply within a single quarter, making a sustained beat streak difficult to extrapolate.
Navios Maritime trades at a forward P/E of 4.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.03, placing it among the most cheaply valued shipping companies in its peer group and suggesting the market is pricing in significant risk to future earnings.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E re-rates above 6x within 12 months as the market recognizes the earnings quality improvement in the shipping cycle.
CounterShipping company valuations are structurally low due to extreme earnings cyclicality, and cheap multiples can persist for years when freight rates decline.
Free cash flow is negative 24% relative to net income, flagging a significant gap between reported earnings and actual cash generation, which reduces confidence in the sustainability of earnings and distributions.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow improves to at least positive 50% of net income within 12 months as capital spending normalizes.
CounterMarine shipping companies routinely invest in fleet renewal which temporarily suppresses free cash flow relative to net income without impairing the underlying earnings power.
A put-to-call ratio of 3.37 shows that options traders are heavily positioned for downside in Navios, indicating widespread concern that the current price and earnings trajectory may not hold.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 3 months as earnings confirm the fundamental thesis and reduce defensive hedging.
CounterElevated put-to-call ratios in small-cap shipping companies may reflect limited liquidity in the options market rather than genuine directional conviction from large investors.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Navios Maritime Partners trades at an exceptionally low forward P/E of 4.4x and PEG of 0.03 with four consecutive earnings beats averaging 28% above estimates, but a deeply negative free cash flow relative to net income and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 3.37 signal caution at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -24% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 11 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $4,763,410 (0.231% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 5.8 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 8.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 33.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:47d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.36
Upside
+8.8%
Downside
6.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.9; weakest: Technical at 5.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Growth at 8.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 5.3, Peer rank at 6.0, and Quality at 6.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Low Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E contracts below 3x without a corresponding earnings estimate reduction, suggesting worsening market confidence.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Beats
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Free Cash Flow Quality Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below negative 50% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Elevated Put Call Bearish Signal
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 5.0 within the next 60 days.