Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.6 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 9.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.67
- ▸Attractively valued
NEXN · Why this verdict
Why Nexxen International (NEXN) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nexxen screens cheap with strong cash conversion, but a below-floor risk score, notable insider selling, and overbought momentum against a flat trend support the engine's extreme-risk exit signal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Nexxen trades at a forward P/E of 7.7x with a PEG of 0.60, and shows excellent cash conversion at 222% of FCF-to-net-income. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple should expand toward peer averages over the next 12 months given the strong cash conversion. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCheap valuation and strong cash conversion can still coexist with a failing Rule of 40 score (22, below the 40 growth-plus-margin bar), signaling the business isn't growing fast enough to re-rate. | ||
The engine's risk score sits at 2.7, below its 3.0 minimum floor, flagged as an extreme risk factor warranting an exit. Bear case | The risk score should recover above 3.0 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA below-floor risk score triggered by elevated volatility or beta doesn't necessarily reflect deteriorating fundamentals at the underlying ad-tech business. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers of $656,077 (0.123% of market cap), with a bearish insider signal. Insider | Insider selling activity should slow or reverse to net buying over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider sales can reflect routine diversification or scheduled selling plans rather than a negative view of the business. | ||
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 74, trading above its 200-day moving average, though the MA slope itself is flat rather than clearly trending. Momentum breakdown | The overbought condition should resolve with the stock consolidating rather than reversing sharply, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn overbought RSI at 74 combined with a flat long-term trend often precedes a pullback rather than continued gains. | ||
Nexxen trades at a forward P/E of 7.7x with a PEG of 0.60, and shows excellent cash conversion at 222% of FCF-to-net-income.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple should expand toward peer averages over the next 12 months given the strong cash conversion.
CounterCheap valuation and strong cash conversion can still coexist with a failing Rule of 40 score (22, below the 40 growth-plus-margin bar), signaling the business isn't growing fast enough to re-rate.
The engine's risk score sits at 2.7, below its 3.0 minimum floor, flagged as an extreme risk factor warranting an exit.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The risk score should recover above 3.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA below-floor risk score triggered by elevated volatility or beta doesn't necessarily reflect deteriorating fundamentals at the underlying ad-tech business.
Insiders have been net sellers of $656,077 (0.123% of market cap), with a bearish insider signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling activity should slow or reverse to net buying over the next 12 months.
CounterInsider sales can reflect routine diversification or scheduled selling plans rather than a negative view of the business.
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 74, trading above its 200-day moving average, though the MA slope itself is flat rather than clearly trending.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The overbought condition should resolve with the stock consolidating rather than reversing sharply, over the next 12 months.
CounterAn overbought RSI at 74 combined with a flat long-term trend often precedes a pullback rather than continued gains.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.2 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 2.4 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 222% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 22 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 4.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $3,872,017 (0.646% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 3.9 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 10.50
- ▸High IV: 164%
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.6 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (4)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:0.65%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.80
Upside
+7.8%
Downside
9.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.46>1.3, MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 7.4 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.4, Sentiment at 6.8, and Peer rank at 5.6; the weakest are Insider at 2.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2, and Momentum at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.80 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation With Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifRule of 40 score rises above 40 from the current 22.
- P2Risk Score Below Floor
Trip ifRisk score falls below 2.0, a further deterioration from the current 2.7.
- P3Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $1,000,000 over the next 90 days, deepening the current $656,077 bearish signal.
- P4Overbought Momentum With Flat Trend
Trip ifRSI falls below 50 from the current 74, unwinding the overbought condition.