Nexa Resources (NEXA) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $0.87
- Estimate
- $0.69
- Surprise
- +26.7%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $937.1M
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.3 → 6.5/10
Revenue source: yfinance_provisional (provisional — SEC XBRL not yet filed for this period).
How the report landed
Nexa Resources (NEXA) beat the $0.69 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.87 — a large 26.7% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (6.3/10) to Sell at 6.5/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates NEXA Sell at 6.5/10.
1 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +26.7% surprise compares with a +3.9% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2027-02-25.
What supports the rating
- Attractive valuation
- Strong growth profile
What argues against it
- Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.33× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
- Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
- Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $11.08
- Price target
- $12.21
- Stop
- $10.62
- Upside to target
- +10.2%
- Reward-to-risk
- 1.1:1
The stock trades at 10.1× trailing but 3.3× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: trading volume is running 1.8× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-31 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
NEXA at TrendMatrix's latest read
Materials producers report against the commodity cycle — realized-price capture and volume, not the EPS line, are the tells in a quarter like this.
- Industry
- Other Industrial Metals & Mining
- Market cap
- $1.47B
- P/E (fwd)
- 3.3
- P/E (ttm)
- 10.1
- 52-week range
- $5.05–$16.89
- Off 52-week high
- 34.4%
- RSI (14)
- 30
- Volume vs avg
- 1.79×
- Score today
- 6.5/10