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NEXANexa Resources S.A.Hold6.5·$13.22+9.80%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Nexa Resources is a metals and mining company with extremely attractive valuation metrics and 42% revenue growth, but three consecutive earnings misses and a current price already exceeding analyst consensus targets make it a high-risk hold rather than a compelling entry.

Thesis pillars

  • Price Above Analyst TargetStable
  • Deep Value MetricsStable
  • Strong Revenue GrowthStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Nexa Resources S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the zinc mining and smelting business worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Mining and Smelting. It produces metallic zinc, zamac, gold, sulfuric acid and zinc oxide, as well as by-products, such as... Read more

$13.22+16.9% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#2 of 35 Other Industrial Metals & Mining
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield14.71%
IncomeYield1.18%(5y avg 5.05%)Payout0.00%sustainable
Stop $12.13Target $15.25(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$12.31-6.9%8 analysts
$15.25our TP
$13.22price
$12.31mean
$6
$16

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202626d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.80)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.3
P/E (Fwd)4.6
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA4.3
Profit Mgn6.4%
ROE24.4%
Rev Growth41.7%
Beta0.92
Dividend1.18%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.31bearish
IV89%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MDividend: 118.0%
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.58Resistance $15.56

Price Targets

$12
$15
A.Upside+15.4%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NEXA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $15.25 (+15.4%), stop $12.13 (−9.0%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NEXA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.25 (+16.9% upside). Target $15.25 (+15.4%), stop $12.13 (−9.0%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Stop-loss: $12.13.

What are the risks of investing in NEXA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is NEXA overvalued or undervalued?

Nexa Resources S.A. trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward 4.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NEXA?

12 analysts cover NEXA with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Nexa Resources S.A. do?Nexa Resources S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the zinc mining and smelting business worldwide. The...

Nexa Resources S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the zinc mining and smelting business worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Mining and Smelting. It produces metallic zinc, zamac, gold, sulfuric acid and zinc oxide, as well as by-products, such as sulfuric acid, silver concentrate, copper cement, copper sulfate, lead concentrate, lead-silver concentrate, and other metallurgical by-products. The Company owns and operates three polymetallic mines in Peru and two polymetallic mines in Brazil. The company owns and operates three polymetallic mines in Peru and two polymetallic mines in Brazil; zinc smelter in Peru and two zinc smelters in Brazil. The company was formerly known as VM Holding S.A. and changed its name to Nexa Resources S.A. in September 2017. The company was founded in 1956 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Nexa Resources S.A. is a subsidiary of Votorantim S.A.

Related stocks: SCZM (Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd.) · LAR (Lithium Argentina AG) · ALM (Almonty Industries Inc.) · USAS (Americas Gold and Silver Corpor) · GSM (Ferroglobe PLC)
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