NCDL (NCDL) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Asset Management
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.68: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (the Company) is business development company and was formed on March 13, 2018, as a limited liability company under the laws of the State of Delaware and was converted into a Maryland corporation on June 18, 2019 prior to the commencement... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.68: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.68: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $11.90. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $12.65 (-0.2% upside). Prior stop was $11.90. Stop-loss: $11.90.
Target reached (-1.5% upside); Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).
NCDL trades at a P/E of 10.7 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover NCDL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $14.
What does NCDL do?Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (the Company) is business development company and was formed on March 13, 2018,...
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (the Company) is business development company and was formed on March 13, 2018, as a limited liability company under the laws of the State of Delaware and was converted into a Maryland corporation on June 18, 2019 prior to the commencement of operations. The Company is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified management investment company that has elected to be regulated as a business development company (BDC) under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the 1940 Act). The Company's investment objective is to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns primarily through current income by investing primarily in senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle market companies, which the Company defines as companies with approximately $10.0 million to $100.0 million of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). The Company will focus on privately originated debt to performing U.S. middle market companies, with a portfolio expected to comprise primarily of first-lien senior secured debt and unitranche loans (other than last-out positions in unitranche loans) (collectively Senior Loans). The Company will also opportunistically invest in junior capital opportunities (second-lien loans, subordinated debt, last-out positions in unitranche loans and equity-related securities) (collectively Junior Capital Investments).