Value
9.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
- ▸Attractively valued
NBN · Why this verdict
Why Northeast Bank (NBN) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Northeast Bank combines superior ROE, best-in-class margins, and a cheap forward multiple with a solid earnings beat streak, though the stock has already run to its analyst price target, capping near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.3x with a very low PEG of 0.16, screening as attractively valued given its growth. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple should re-rate higher toward peer averages over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock has already reached its analyst price target (-13.7% upside flag), suggesting the market has priced in much of the near-term value case. | ||
Northeast Bank posted 35% YoY growth and ranks with superior ROE and best-in-class margins versus peers. Peer-rank breakdown | Growth should remain in double digits and ROE ranking should stay top-tier versus peers over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSuperior ROE at a small regional bank can reflect elevated leverage or a concentrated loan book rather than durable operating excellence. | ||
The bank posts strong margins of 43%, a key driver of its quality profile. Quality breakdown | Margins should hold at or above 40% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBank margins can compress quickly in a shifting rate environment, and 43% may not be sustainable through a full credit cycle. | ||
The bank has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of 8.8%. Earnings | The beat streak should continue over the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterOne of the last four quarters was a miss, showing the streak is not unbroken and could reverse. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, with the engine flagging -13.7% upside remaining and a negative asymmetry ratio. Engine gate (failed) | Analyst price targets should be raised, restoring positive implied upside, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA stale, un-refreshed target doesn't preclude further gains if growth continues to outpace expectations. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.3x with a very low PEG of 0.16, screening as attractively valued given its growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple should re-rate higher toward peer averages over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock has already reached its analyst price target (-13.7% upside flag), suggesting the market has priced in much of the near-term value case.
Northeast Bank posted 35% YoY growth and ranks with superior ROE and best-in-class margins versus peers.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Growth should remain in double digits and ROE ranking should stay top-tier versus peers over the next 12 months.
CounterSuperior ROE at a small regional bank can reflect elevated leverage or a concentrated loan book rather than durable operating excellence.
The bank posts strong margins of 43%, a key driver of its quality profile.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should hold at or above 40% over the next 12 months.
CounterBank margins can compress quickly in a shifting rate environment, and 43% may not be sustainable through a full credit cycle.
The bank has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of 8.8%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue over the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterOne of the last four quarters was a miss, showing the streak is not unbroken and could reverse.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, with the engine flagging -13.7% upside remaining and a negative asymmetry ratio.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should be raised, restoring positive implied upside, over the next 12 months.
CounterA stale, un-refreshed target doesn't preclude further gains if growth continues to outpace expectations.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.3 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 43%
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 40) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 9.3 |
| growth rank | 8.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.0 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 8.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| beta | 9.5 |
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.38
Upside
-9.2%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 10.0 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.0, and Technical at 7.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.0, Insider at 5.0, and Sentiment at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.38 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth And Superior Roe
Trip ifQuality peer-rank score for ROE falls below 5.0, reversing the current superior-ROE read.
- P2Cheap Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 9.3x.
- P3Strong Margin Profile
Trip ifNet margin falls below 30% from the current 43%.
- P4Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls below 50% over the next 4 reported quarters.
- P5Limited Upside At Stale Target
Trip ifAnalyst-implied upside rises above 10% from the current -13.7%.