Value
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.6 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 32.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.31
MYRG · Why this verdict
Why MYR Group (MYRG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
MYR Group beat consensus earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 22.6%, including a 45.7% beat in the most recent quarter, reflecting consistent outperformance across electrical construction projects. Earnings | The company continues to beat or meet consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as electrical grid modernization demand sustains backlog. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 45.7% beat in the most recent quarter inflates the average and may reflect favorable project timing; the comparison base for the next report is now significantly harder to beat. | ||
MYR Group converts 161% of net income into free cash flow — well above the industry norm — indicating that the company's earnings are of high quality and that reported profits substantially understate actual cash generation. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for at least 2 of the next 4 reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh free cash flow conversion can reflect deferred capital investment; if MYR Group needs to reinvest significantly to maintain its equipment fleet, free cash flow could revert to more typical levels. | ||
At $449.94, the stock is already 12% above the analyst consensus target, producing a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.06 and limiting the probability-weighted upside for new buyers even with strong underlying fundamentals. V9 | The stock pulls back below $415 (falls more than 7% from current levels) before the next quarterly earnings catalyst, restoring a more favorable reward-to-risk profile. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalysts may be slow to raise targets after the recent 45.7% earnings beat; a target upgrade following the next earnings report could quickly close the gap between price and analyst target. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 8.8 is among the highest in the engineering and construction sector, meaning that an earnings shortfall or rising interest rate environment could disproportionately pressure the company's financial flexibility. Bear case | The debt-to-equity ratio declines below 5.0 within 18 months as free cash flow is applied to debt reduction. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh debt in construction companies is often short-term in nature and tied to project bonding requirements rather than long-term debt; the effective leverage risk may be lower than the ratio implies. | ||
MYR Group beat consensus earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 22.6%, including a 45.7% beat in the most recent quarter, reflecting consistent outperformance across electrical construction projects.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company continues to beat or meet consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as electrical grid modernization demand sustains backlog.
CounterThe 45.7% beat in the most recent quarter inflates the average and may reflect favorable project timing; the comparison base for the next report is now significantly harder to beat.
MYR Group converts 161% of net income into free cash flow — well above the industry norm — indicating that the company's earnings are of high quality and that reported profits substantially understate actual cash generation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for at least 2 of the next 4 reporting periods.
CounterHigh free cash flow conversion can reflect deferred capital investment; if MYR Group needs to reinvest significantly to maintain its equipment fleet, free cash flow could revert to more typical levels.
At $449.94, the stock is already 12% above the analyst consensus target, producing a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.06 and limiting the probability-weighted upside for new buyers even with strong underlying fundamentals.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- The stock pulls back below $415 (falls more than 7% from current levels) before the next quarterly earnings catalyst, restoring a more favorable reward-to-risk profile.
CounterAnalysts may be slow to raise targets after the recent 45.7% earnings beat; a target upgrade following the next earnings report could quickly close the gap between price and analyst target.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 8.8 is among the highest in the engineering and construction sector, meaning that an earnings shortfall or rising interest rate environment could disproportionately pressure the company's financial flexibility.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The debt-to-equity ratio declines below 5.0 within 18 months as free cash flow is applied to debt reduction.
CounterHigh debt in construction companies is often short-term in nature and tied to project bonding requirements rather than long-term debt; the effective leverage risk may be lower than the ratio implies.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MYR Group has delivered a perfect 4-of-4 earnings beat record with an average surprise of 22.6% and exceptional free cash flow conversion at 161% of net income, but the stock is already 12% above its analyst target and the debt-to-equity ratio of 8.8 introduces significant leverage risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.6 |
| ROA | 5.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.6 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 161% FCF/NI
Growth
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $10,501,547 (0.156% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 7.0 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.4 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 72%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.70
Upside
-8.6%
Downside
12.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.31>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.70 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.8, Catalyst at 7.5, and Technical at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 3.0, Insider at 3.3, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.70 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus estimates by more than 10% in any 1 of the next 2 quarters.
- P2Exceptional Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price Above Target Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifStock price rises above $480 (surpasses current levels by more than 7%) without an analyst target revision higher.
- P4High Leverage Debt Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 10 or interest expense increases by more than 25% year-over-year.