Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.16
- ▸Attractively valued
MYE · Why this verdict
Why Myers Industries (MYE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Myers Industries combines a strong earnings beat streak, an attractive valuation, and a positive news-driven upgrade in the engine's stance, tempered by leverage already flagged as a risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with a positive average surprise of about 23%. Earnings | The beat streak should continue with at least one more beat in the next 2 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock has already reached its prior analyst price target, suggesting these beats may already be priced in. | ||
The stock trades attractively relative to its earnings growth, with a PEG ratio of about 0.25. Valuation breakdown | The value score should stay above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists or closes via price appreciation. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio suggests some options-market hedging against downside, tempering the bullish valuation case. | ||
Positive news sentiment has been strong enough to shift the engine's recommended stance from a sell-oriented lean to a hold via a news-driven modifier. Warnings | News sentiment should remain positive over the next quarter, sustaining the improved stance. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterNegative asymmetry shows the risk/reward at the current price is still unfavorable independent of the sentiment boost. | ||
Elevated leverage draws a penalty to the overall score. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline below 1.0 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStrong cash conversion suggests the company can comfortably service and reduce this leverage over time. | ||
The company has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with a positive average surprise of about 23%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue with at least one more beat in the next 2 quarters.
CounterThe stock has already reached its prior analyst price target, suggesting these beats may already be priced in.
The stock trades attractively relative to its earnings growth, with a PEG ratio of about 0.25.
Tripped↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists or closes via price appreciation.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio suggests some options-market hedging against downside, tempering the bullish valuation case.
Positive news sentiment has been strong enough to shift the engine's recommended stance from a sell-oriented lean to a hold via a news-driven modifier.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- News sentiment should remain positive over the next quarter, sustaining the improved stance.
CounterNegative asymmetry shows the risk/reward at the current price is still unfavorable independent of the sentiment boost.
Elevated leverage draws a penalty to the overall score.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline below 1.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterStrong cash conversion suggests the company can comfortably service and reduce this leverage over time.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.7 |
| ROA | 5.1 |
| Gross margin | 3.0 |
| Op margin | 7.0 |
| Net margin | 2.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 196% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.7 |
| support resistance | 7.0 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 0.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.83
- ▸High IV: 113%
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.26
Upside
-2.6%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 7.9; weakest: Momentum at 2.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Growth at 7.5, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe company misses EPS estimates in at least 2 of its next 4 reported quarters.
- P2Attractive Forward ValuationTripped
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 22x from the current 16.9x without at least a 10% price increase.
- P3Positive News Sentiment Modifier
Trip ifNews sentiment falls below -0.3 within the next quarter.
- P4Elevated Leverage Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 2.0 within the next fiscal year.