Murphy Oil (MUR) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $1.08
- Estimate
- $0.86
- Surprise
- +25.3%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $849.2M
- Score today
- 6.6/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Murphy Oil (MUR) beat the $0.86 estimate with adjusted EPS of $1.08 — a large 25.3% upside surprise.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates MUR Hold at 6.6/10; no pre/post engine snapshot brackets this report.
3 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +25.3% surprise compares with a +137.5% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
- Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
What argues against it
- Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 9.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.53× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
- Thin upside margin: 6.3%
- Negative momentum
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $35.94
- Price target
- $38.22
- Stop
- $34.32
- Upside to target
- +6.3%
- Reward-to-risk
- 0.6:1
The stock trades at 17.8× trailing but 9.5× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-05 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
MUR at TrendMatrix's latest read
Energy results are commodity-price arithmetic first; the operational beat or miss is read net of what the strip already told the market.
- Industry
- Oil & Gas E&P
- Market cap
- $5.15B
- P/E (fwd)
- 9.5
- P/E (ttm)
- 17.8
- 52-week range
- $26.49–$45.03
- Off 52-week high
- 20.2%
- RSI (14)
- 38
- Volume vs avg
- 1.48×
- Score today
- 6.6/10