Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.8 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.92
MTW · Why this verdict
Why Manitowoc Company, Inc. (The) (MTW) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Manitowoc trades at a deep valuation discount, but quality sits below the engine's floor, momentum has broken down, and insiders have been modest net sellers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a deep valuation discount, with a PEG ratio of just 0.04 and a forward P/E near 13.8x. Valuation breakdown | The value score should stay elevated above 7.0 or the price should re-rate upward. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock has already fallen well below its prior analyst target, suggesting the market may be pricing in fundamental deterioration rather than a temporary discount. | ||
Fundamental quality has fallen below the engine's 4.0 floor, with a negative free-cash-flow-to-net-income red flag. Quality breakdown | The quality score should rise above 4.0 within the next 2 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 suggests core balance-sheet health remains solid despite the cash-flow shortfall. | ||
Price momentum has broken down, with the engine's momentum score below its required gate threshold. Warnings | The momentum score should recover above 4.5 within the next 2 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock still holds above its 200-day moving average, suggesting the longer-term trend has not fully reversed. | ||
Insiders have been modest net sellers over the past 90 days. Insider | Insider transactions should turn net-neutral or net-buying over the next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterThe selling is described as modest, at a small fraction of market cap, limiting how much signal should be drawn from it. | ||
The stock trades at a deep valuation discount, with a PEG ratio of just 0.04 and a forward P/E near 13.8x.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay elevated above 7.0 or the price should re-rate upward.
CounterThe stock has already fallen well below its prior analyst target, suggesting the market may be pricing in fundamental deterioration rather than a temporary discount.
Fundamental quality has fallen below the engine's 4.0 floor, with a negative free-cash-flow-to-net-income red flag.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score should rise above 4.0 within the next 2 quarters.
CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 suggests core balance-sheet health remains solid despite the cash-flow shortfall.
Price momentum has broken down, with the engine's momentum score below its required gate threshold.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- The momentum score should recover above 4.5 within the next 2 quarters.
CounterThe stock still holds above its 200-day moving average, suggesting the longer-term trend has not fully reversed.
Insiders have been modest net sellers over the past 90 days.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider transactions should turn net-neutral or net-buying over the next quarter.
CounterThe selling is described as modest, at a small fraction of market cap, limiting how much signal should be drawn from it.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.0 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 0.4 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 387% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
Momentum
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 85)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.7 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 1.2 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $106,200 (0.016% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 3.1 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.2 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.3 |
| debt equity | 6.4 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.88
Upside
-43.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.72>1.3, MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-2.9=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.88 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.7, Insider at 7.3, and Value at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Sentiment at 3.8, and Quality at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.88 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Discount
Trip ifValue score falls below 5.0 within 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 within 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Momentum Gate Breakdown
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5, clearing the gate, within 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a percent of market cap exceeds 0.1% within the next 90 days.