Value
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 33.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
MTLS · Why this verdict
Why Materialise (MTLS) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Materialise has beaten earnings four quarters in a row and has a perfect Piotroski score with steady mid-single-digit revenue growth, but the stock is 13.4% above the analyst target and near its 52-week high.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quarterly revenue of $70.1M for the June 2026 quarter is about 8% above the $64.8M of a year earlier. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should stay at or above the $64.8M year-earlier level and approach $69M to $78M. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRevenue figures are provisional from yfinance, growth confidence is only 0.33, and revenue fell from $77.8M in September 2025 to $66.3M in March 2026. | ||
The company beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last quarters, including a 50% beat in August 2026 ($0.06 against $0.04). Earnings track record | EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates at the 28 October 2026 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEstimates have fallen 5.1% in the last 30 days and the large percentage surprises come from very small EPS bases of $0.01 to $0.06. | ||
The Piotroski F-Score is a strong 9 of 9, signalling improving profitability, liquidity and efficiency. Quality breakdown | The F-Score should stay at 8 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOperating margin scores only 0.2 and returns on equity and assets are low, so the F-Score may mask thin underlying profitability. | ||
Price of $8.63 is 13.4% above the $7.48 analyst target, so consensus offers no upside at this price. Upside pct | Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price if beats continue. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe put/call ratio is elevated at 2.50 and the negative reward-to-risk of -1.6 means any slip in results is not cushioned by valuation. | ||
Rising on-balance volume and a position above the 200-day average show accumulation, with price 2.2% from its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above its 200-day average with momentum above 5.5. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPrice near the 52-week high leaves little room, and recent volume scores only 0.9, which weakens the accumulation signal. | ||
Quarterly revenue of $70.1M for the June 2026 quarter is about 8% above the $64.8M of a year earlier.
↓DeterioratingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stay at or above the $64.8M year-earlier level and approach $69M to $78M.
CounterRevenue figures are provisional from yfinance, growth confidence is only 0.33, and revenue fell from $77.8M in September 2025 to $66.3M in March 2026.
The company beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last quarters, including a 50% beat in August 2026 ($0.06 against $0.04).
↓DeterioratingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates at the 28 October 2026 report.
CounterEstimates have fallen 5.1% in the last 30 days and the large percentage surprises come from very small EPS bases of $0.01 to $0.06.
The Piotroski F-Score is a strong 9 of 9, signalling improving profitability, liquidity and efficiency.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The F-Score should stay at 8 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterOperating margin scores only 0.2 and returns on equity and assets are low, so the F-Score may mask thin underlying profitability.
Price of $8.63 is 13.4% above the $7.48 analyst target, so consensus offers no upside at this price.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price if beats continue.
CounterThe put/call ratio is elevated at 2.50 and the negative reward-to-risk of -1.6 means any slip in results is not cushioned by valuation.
Rising on-balance volume and a position above the 200-day average show accumulation, with price 2.2% from its 52-week high.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above its 200-day average with momentum above 5.5.
CounterPrice near the 52-week high leaves little room, and recent volume scores only 0.9, which weakens the accumulation signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.7 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 7.4 |
| Op margin | 0.2 |
| Net margin | 2.4 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 7.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 4.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
| erm sentiment | 2.9 |
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-5.1%)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 2.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -5.1% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.60
Upside
-13.9%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.33>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Catalyst at 6.9 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 6.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8, and Momentum at 6.2; the weakest are Technical at 4.5, Sentiment at 4.5, and Growth at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.60 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Financial Health Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 9.
- P3Steady Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $64.8M from the current $70.1M.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $8.17 stop, a drop of more than 5.3% from $8.63.
- P5Accumulation Near Highs
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from the current 5.8.