Value
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 5.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.9 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.5x
- ▸PEG: 2.73
MTD · Why this verdict
Why Mettler-Toledo International, I (MTD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company delivers 21% operating margins and scores 7.8/10 on quality with an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score, ranking at the top of its peer group for margin quality and is among the best-in-class for its diagnostics sector. Quality breakdown | Operating margins remain above 20% in every quarter over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is flagged at only 70% of net income (an earnings quality warning), and the return on assets scores well at 10/10 but this may be supported by an asset-light model that faces limits if the business needs to reinvest for growth. | ||
Mettler-Toledo has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4.1%, with the most recent quarterly beat of $8.91 against the $8.71 estimate demonstrating consistent outperformance. Earnings | The company beats earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports as the streak continues into the July 2026 reporting cycle. | →Stable |
| CounterAn average surprise of only 4.1% is modest for a high-quality compounder, and weak growth scoring of 3.8/10 suggests organic growth is insufficient to drive meaningful earnings acceleration beyond these incremental beats. | ||
At the current price of $1,154.47, the stock is virtually at the analyst price target of $1,155.22, offering only 0.1% upside with 6.0% downside risk to the stop-loss at $1,085.31, making the current risk-reward essentially flat. Targets | Analyst consensus price targets rise above $1,300 within 6 months on improving growth visibility, restoring a favorable risk-reward. | →Stable |
| CounterWith the stock already at the analyst target, any positive earnings or macro surprise would likely trigger immediate analyst target upgrades, potentially creating a self-fulfilling upward revision cycle. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average, which is declining at -1.4% per 30 days, but MACD is improving and RSI is at 60, suggesting a potential recovery is underway even as the longer-term trend remains negative. Bear case | The 200-day moving average slope turns positive within 6 months, confirming a trend reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterA death-cross is technically in place, and while the quality and momentum combination qualifies for an exemption from the hard block, the downtrend in the long-term average remains a headwind that has historically taken 6-12 months to fully resolve. | ||
The company delivers 21% operating margins and scores 7.8/10 on quality with an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score, ranking at the top of its peer group for margin quality and is among the best-in-class for its diagnostics sector.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 20% in every quarter over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is flagged at only 70% of net income (an earnings quality warning), and the return on assets scores well at 10/10 but this may be supported by an asset-light model that faces limits if the business needs to reinvest for growth.
Mettler-Toledo has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4.1%, with the most recent quarterly beat of $8.91 against the $8.71 estimate demonstrating consistent outperformance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports as the streak continues into the July 2026 reporting cycle.
CounterAn average surprise of only 4.1% is modest for a high-quality compounder, and weak growth scoring of 3.8/10 suggests organic growth is insufficient to drive meaningful earnings acceleration beyond these incremental beats.
At the current price of $1,154.47, the stock is virtually at the analyst price target of $1,155.22, offering only 0.1% upside with 6.0% downside risk to the stop-loss at $1,085.31, making the current risk-reward essentially flat.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price targets rise above $1,300 within 6 months on improving growth visibility, restoring a favorable risk-reward.
CounterWith the stock already at the analyst target, any positive earnings or macro surprise would likely trigger immediate analyst target upgrades, potentially creating a self-fulfilling upward revision cycle.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average, which is declining at -1.4% per 30 days, but MACD is improving and RSI is at 60, suggesting a potential recovery is underway even as the longer-term trend remains negative.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns positive within 6 months, confirming a trend reversal.
CounterA death-cross is technically in place, and while the quality and momentum combination qualifies for an exemption from the hard block, the downtrend in the long-term average remains a headwind that has historically taken 6-12 months to fully resolve.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mettler-Toledo is a high-quality precision instruments business with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and best-in-class margins of 21%, but the stock has essentially reached analyst price targets with only 0.1% upside and trades below its long-term trend line, creating an unfavorable near-term entry point.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 9.3 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 5.4 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
3.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 3.3 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 82)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.4 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 9.3 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 6.8 |
| beta | 6.0 |
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=7.8>=7.5+momentum=6.0>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
-0.86
Upside
-12.8%
Downside
14.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 82
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.86 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.1; the weakest are Technical at 2.7, Value at 3.7, and Growth at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.86 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Consistency
Trip ifActual EPS falls below consensus estimate by more than 5% in any single quarter over the next 12 months.
- P2Best In Class Margins
Trip ifReported operating margin falls below 18% in any quarterly disclosure.
- P3Price At Target No Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target drops below $1,050, reducing implied upside to less than 0% from current levels.
- P4Downtrend Recovery Signal
Trip ifStock price drops below $1,085.31, the stop-loss level, on a closing basis.