Value
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.3 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.8 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.0x
- ▸PEG: 2.70
MTD · Why this verdict
Why Mettler-Toledo International, I (MTD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mettler-Toledo is a high-quality precision instruments business with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and best-in-class margins of 21%, but the stock has essentially reached analyst price targets with only 0.1% upside and trades below its long-term trend line, creating an unfavorable near-term entry point.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company delivers 21% operating margins and scores 7.8/10 on quality with an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score, ranking at the top of its peer group for margin quality and is among the best-in-class for its diagnostics sector. Quality breakdown | Operating margins remain above 20% in every quarter over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is flagged at only 70% of net income (an earnings quality warning), and the return on assets scores well at 10/10 but this may be supported by an asset-light model that faces limits if the business needs to reinvest for growth. | ||
Mettler-Toledo has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4.1%, with the most recent quarterly beat of $8.91 against the $8.71 estimate demonstrating consistent outperformance. Earnings | The company beats earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports as the streak continues into the July 2026 reporting cycle. | →Stable |
| CounterAn average surprise of only 4.1% is modest for a high-quality compounder, and weak growth scoring of 3.8/10 suggests organic growth is insufficient to drive meaningful earnings acceleration beyond these incremental beats. | ||
At the current price of $1,154.47, the stock is virtually at the analyst price target of $1,155.22, offering only 0.1% upside with 6.0% downside risk to the stop-loss at $1,085.31, making the current risk-reward essentially flat. Targets | Analyst consensus price targets rise above $1,300 within 6 months on improving growth visibility, restoring a favorable risk-reward. | →Stable |
| CounterWith the stock already at the analyst target, any positive earnings or macro surprise would likely trigger immediate analyst target upgrades, potentially creating a self-fulfilling upward revision cycle. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average, which is declining at -1.4% per 30 days, but MACD is improving and RSI is at 60, suggesting a potential recovery is underway even as the longer-term trend remains negative. Bear case | The 200-day moving average slope turns positive within 6 months, confirming a trend reversal. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA death-cross is technically in place, and while the quality and momentum combination qualifies for an exemption from the hard block, the downtrend in the long-term average remains a headwind that has historically taken 6-12 months to fully resolve. | ||
The company delivers 21% operating margins and scores 7.8/10 on quality with an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score, ranking at the top of its peer group for margin quality and is among the best-in-class for its diagnostics sector.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 20% in every quarter over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is flagged at only 70% of net income (an earnings quality warning), and the return on assets scores well at 10/10 but this may be supported by an asset-light model that faces limits if the business needs to reinvest for growth.
Mettler-Toledo has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4.1%, with the most recent quarterly beat of $8.91 against the $8.71 estimate demonstrating consistent outperformance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports as the streak continues into the July 2026 reporting cycle.
CounterAn average surprise of only 4.1% is modest for a high-quality compounder, and weak growth scoring of 3.8/10 suggests organic growth is insufficient to drive meaningful earnings acceleration beyond these incremental beats.
At the current price of $1,154.47, the stock is virtually at the analyst price target of $1,155.22, offering only 0.1% upside with 6.0% downside risk to the stop-loss at $1,085.31, making the current risk-reward essentially flat.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price targets rise above $1,300 within 6 months on improving growth visibility, restoring a favorable risk-reward.
CounterWith the stock already at the analyst target, any positive earnings or macro surprise would likely trigger immediate analyst target upgrades, potentially creating a self-fulfilling upward revision cycle.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average, which is declining at -1.4% per 30 days, but MACD is improving and RSI is at 60, suggesting a potential recovery is underway even as the longer-term trend remains negative.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns positive within 6 months, confirming a trend reversal.
CounterA death-cross is technically in place, and while the quality and momentum combination qualifies for an exemption from the hard block, the downtrend in the long-term average remains a headwind that has historically taken 6-12 months to fully resolve.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 9.3 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 5.4 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
3.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 3.3 |
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 5.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 9.3 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 9.8 |
| implied vol | 5.9 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.0 |
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.48
Upside
-12.6%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5. Top dim: Quality at 7.8; weakest: Technical at 3.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.8, Insider at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Value at 3.7, and Growth at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.48 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Consistency
Trip ifActual EPS falls below consensus estimate by more than 5% in any single quarter over the next 12 months.
- P2Best In Class Margins
Trip ifReported operating margin falls below 18% in any quarterly disclosure.
- P3Price At Target No Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target drops below $1,050, reducing implied upside to less than 0% from current levels.
- P4Downtrend Recovery Signal
Trip ifStock price drops below $1,085.31, the stop-loss level, on a closing basis.