Value
5.9/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.1 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 34.4x
MRAM · Why this verdict
Why Everspin Technologies (MRAM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Everspin shows classic value-trap signals and extreme insider selling despite a positive earnings-surprise track record and a technical pullback the engine flags as a buy opportunity.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company shows classic value-trap characteristics, including compressed operating margins near 3.2% and a deeply negative free-cash-flow-to-net-income red flag. Quality breakdown | Operating margin should expand back above 10% and free cash flow should turn positive within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 63% drawdown from 52-week highs may already reflect this margin compression, limiting further downside. | ||
Insiders, including a named executive, have sold an extreme amount of stock relative to market capitalization, a strong bearish signal on management's own view of value. Insider | Insider selling intensity should fall to a non-extreme level below 1% of market cap within the next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy insider selling can also reflect pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) rather than a fresh negative view. | ||
Despite weak fundamentals elsewhere, the company has posted a positive average earnings surprise with beats and no misses in the last 4 quarters. Earnings | The earnings beat streak should continue with at least one more beat in the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quality score sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, showing the earnings beats have not translated into genuine fundamental quality improvement. | ||
The stock is in an uptrend pullback with a moderate RSI reading, a level the engine's technical framework flags as a potential buying opportunity while price still holds above its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover back above 50 while price holds above the 200-day moving average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe momentum gate has failed outright and falling on-balance volume shows distribution, both arguing this is deterioration rather than a healthy pullback. | ||
The company shows classic value-trap characteristics, including compressed operating margins near 3.2% and a deeply negative free-cash-flow-to-net-income red flag.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin should expand back above 10% and free cash flow should turn positive within 12 months.
CounterA 63% drawdown from 52-week highs may already reflect this margin compression, limiting further downside.
Insiders, including a named executive, have sold an extreme amount of stock relative to market capitalization, a strong bearish signal on management's own view of value.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling intensity should fall to a non-extreme level below 1% of market cap within the next quarter.
CounterHeavy insider selling can also reflect pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) rather than a fresh negative view.
Despite weak fundamentals elsewhere, the company has posted a positive average earnings surprise with beats and no misses in the last 4 quarters.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak should continue with at least one more beat in the next 2 quarters.
CounterThe quality score sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, showing the earnings beats have not translated into genuine fundamental quality improvement.
The stock is in an uptrend pullback with a moderate RSI reading, a level the engine's technical framework flags as a potential buying opportunity while price still holds above its 200-day moving average.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover back above 50 while price holds above the 200-day moving average.
CounterThe momentum gate has failed outright and falling on-balance volume shows distribution, both arguing this is deterioration rather than a healthy pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.1 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.3 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.2 |
| Current ratio | 7.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -2932% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.7 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 49%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $18,531,250 (4.921% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 3.1 |
| growth rank | 3.4 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.2 |
| days to cover | 9.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.7 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 9.40
- ▸High IV: 131%
- ▸Above max pain $5
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $377M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- INSIDER:4.92%=EXTREME
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
1.75
Upside
+26.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -68% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the INSIDER gate's 4.92%=EXTREME outcome against Catalyst at 7.5 and asymmetric R:R of 1.75.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Sentiment at 7.2, and Momentum at 6.1; the weakest are Quality at 3.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.75 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Value Trap Margin Compression
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 0%, turning negative, for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a percent of market cap exceeds 5% within the next 90 days.
- P3Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifThe company misses EPS estimates in at least 2 of its next 4 reported quarters.
- P4Uptrend Pullback Buy Opportunity
Trip ifPrice falls more than 10% below the current level while RSI stays below 30 for 2 consecutive weeks.