Value
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 6.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
MMYT · Why this verdict
Why MakeMyTrip (MMYT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow represents 170% of net income, and the company holds a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, indicating strong underlying cash generation relative to reported earnings. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 120% of net income over the next 12 months, reinforcing the quality of reported earnings. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh cash conversion may reflect working capital timing rather than durable business quality, especially given a weak growth score and consecutive earnings misses. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of negative 12.9%, including a recent 50% miss, indicating a pattern of guidance that sets expectations too high. Earnings | Earnings results in the next 2 quarters return to at least meeting consensus estimates, breaking the miss pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterStructural cost pressures in travel services may continue to weigh on profitability, keeping earnings below consensus for additional quarters. | ||
Analysts covering the stock project an average price target implying approximately 55% upside from current levels, with the consensus take-profit near $61.25 versus a current price around $45.46. Sentiment breakdown | The stock price rises above $55 within 12 months as analyst estimates are revised upward following improved earnings results. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light at only 10 firms, which dampens the signal reliability, and the stock has a recent history of missing earnings estimates by double-digit percentages. | ||
A put/call ratio of 1.56 and implied volatility of 129% signal that options market participants are positioned defensively, reflecting elevated uncertainty about near-term price direction. Options | Implied volatility compresses below 80% over the next 6 months as earnings consistency improves and negative sentiment moderates. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put positioning and high implied volatility may be rational given the stock's confirmed downtrend and 10% short interest, making a volatility compression scenario difficult to achieve. | ||
Free cash flow represents 170% of net income, and the company holds a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, indicating strong underlying cash generation relative to reported earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 120% of net income over the next 12 months, reinforcing the quality of reported earnings.
CounterHigh cash conversion may reflect working capital timing rather than durable business quality, especially given a weak growth score and consecutive earnings misses.
The company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of negative 12.9%, including a recent 50% miss, indicating a pattern of guidance that sets expectations too high.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings results in the next 2 quarters return to at least meeting consensus estimates, breaking the miss pattern.
CounterStructural cost pressures in travel services may continue to weigh on profitability, keeping earnings below consensus for additional quarters.
Analysts covering the stock project an average price target implying approximately 55% upside from current levels, with the consensus take-profit near $61.25 versus a current price around $45.46.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $55 within 12 months as analyst estimates are revised upward following improved earnings results.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light at only 10 firms, which dampens the signal reliability, and the stock has a recent history of missing earnings estimates by double-digit percentages.
A put/call ratio of 1.56 and implied volatility of 129% signal that options market participants are positioned defensively, reflecting elevated uncertainty about near-term price direction.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- Implied volatility compresses below 80% over the next 6 months as earnings consistency improves and negative sentiment moderates.
CounterElevated put positioning and high implied volatility may be rational given the stock's confirmed downtrend and 10% short interest, making a volatility compression scenario difficult to achieve.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MakeMyTrip offers a favorable analyst upside of 35% and strong cash conversion, but consecutive earnings misses and high implied volatility of 129% leave the risk-reward skewed toward caution until business fundamentals recover.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 7.7 |
| Op margin | 6.4 |
| Net margin | 2.5 |
| Current ratio | 10.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 170% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.0 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 1.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 92)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 8.3 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.7 |
| quality rank | 2.4 |
| growth rank | 0.7 |
Technical
0.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 1.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.8 |
| days to cover | 3.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.30
- ▸High IV: 84%
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.7 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:18d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.41
Upside
+6.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 92
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -44% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Sentiment at 7.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.6, Quality at 6.6, and Momentum at 5.8; the weakest are Technical at 0.5, Peer rank at 2.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 2.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Analyst Upside Potential
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines below $50, reducing implied upside to less than 10%.
- P3Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEarnings miss exceeds 20% for 2 consecutive quarters, worsening the current miss pattern.
- P4Elevated Options Risk
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 2.0, indicating institutional hedging activity increases by more than 30% from current levels.