Value
5.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
MMYT · Why this verdict
Why MakeMyTrip (MMYT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MakeMyTrip offers a favorable analyst upside of 35% and strong cash conversion, but consecutive earnings misses and high implied volatility of 129% leave the risk-reward skewed toward caution until business fundamentals recover.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow represents 170% of net income, and the company holds a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, indicating strong underlying cash generation relative to reported earnings. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 120% of net income over the next 12 months, reinforcing the quality of reported earnings. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh cash conversion may reflect working capital timing rather than durable business quality, especially given a weak growth score and consecutive earnings misses. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of negative 12.9%, including a recent 50% miss, indicating a pattern of guidance that sets expectations too high. Earnings | Earnings results in the next 2 quarters return to at least meeting consensus estimates, breaking the miss pattern. | ↑Improving |
| CounterStructural cost pressures in travel services may continue to weigh on profitability, keeping earnings below consensus for additional quarters. | ||
Analysts covering the stock project an average price target implying approximately 55% upside from current levels, with the consensus take-profit near $61.25 versus a current price around $45.46. Sentiment breakdown | The stock price rises above $55 within 12 months as analyst estimates are revised upward following improved earnings results. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light at only 10 firms, which dampens the signal reliability, and the stock has a recent history of missing earnings estimates by double-digit percentages. | ||
A put/call ratio of 1.56 and implied volatility of 129% signal that options market participants are positioned defensively, reflecting elevated uncertainty about near-term price direction. Options | Implied volatility compresses below 80% over the next 6 months as earnings consistency improves and negative sentiment moderates. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated put positioning and high implied volatility may be rational given the stock's confirmed downtrend and 10% short interest, making a volatility compression scenario difficult to achieve. | ||
Free cash flow represents 170% of net income, and the company holds a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, indicating strong underlying cash generation relative to reported earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 120% of net income over the next 12 months, reinforcing the quality of reported earnings.
CounterHigh cash conversion may reflect working capital timing rather than durable business quality, especially given a weak growth score and consecutive earnings misses.
The company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of negative 12.9%, including a recent 50% miss, indicating a pattern of guidance that sets expectations too high.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings results in the next 2 quarters return to at least meeting consensus estimates, breaking the miss pattern.
CounterStructural cost pressures in travel services may continue to weigh on profitability, keeping earnings below consensus for additional quarters.
Analysts covering the stock project an average price target implying approximately 55% upside from current levels, with the consensus take-profit near $61.25 versus a current price around $45.46.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $55 within 12 months as analyst estimates are revised upward following improved earnings results.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light at only 10 firms, which dampens the signal reliability, and the stock has a recent history of missing earnings estimates by double-digit percentages.
A put/call ratio of 1.56 and implied volatility of 129% signal that options market participants are positioned defensively, reflecting elevated uncertainty about near-term price direction.
↑ImprovingOptions
- Expectation
- Implied volatility compresses below 80% over the next 6 months as earnings consistency improves and negative sentiment moderates.
CounterElevated put positioning and high implied volatility may be rational given the stock's confirmed downtrend and 10% short interest, making a volatility compression scenario difficult to achieve.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.7 |
| Op margin | 6.1 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 9.0 |
| Moat | 7.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 120% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.2 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 23%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.1 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 1.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.9 |
| days to cover | 3.1 |
| volatility | 0.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
- ▸High IV: 73%
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.9 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:76d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.47
Upside
+7.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.47 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.3, Insider at 7.3, and Quality at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 2.0, Peer rank at 3.8, and Growth at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Analyst Upside Potential
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines below $50, reducing implied upside to less than 10%.
- P3Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEarnings miss exceeds 20% for 2 consecutive quarters, worsening the current miss pattern.
- P4Elevated Options Risk
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 2.0, indicating institutional hedging activity increases by more than 30% from current levels.