Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.6 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.5 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 27.6x
- ▸Attractively valued
MDXG · Why this verdict
Why MiMedx Group (MDXG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
MiMedx's revenue is declining sharply, down 33% YoY, and the Rule of 40 combined growth-plus-margin metric registers a failing reading. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive within a few quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong cash conversion and a solid Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 suggest the company is still generating cash efficiently even amid the top-line contraction. | ||
MiMedx offers 45% modeled upside to its analyst target against just 6.6% downside to its stop-loss, an unusually favorable risk/reward ratio of 4.59x. Targets | The risk/reward ratio should stay well above 3.0x as the price target holds. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is down sharply from its 52-week high, a drawdown the engine flags as part of its speculative suitability classification, so the favorable ratio partly reflects how far the stock has already fallen. | ||
The stock has triggered a death-cross hard block and remains below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend, though the engine notes improving MACD, consistent with a recovery setup. Chart pattern detection | Price should reclaim its 200-day moving average as the recovery setup plays out. | →Stable |
| CounterA death-cross hard block is a significant technical warning, and improving MACD alone has not yet been sufficient to reverse the confirmed downtrend. | ||
MiMedx has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 44.7%. Earnings | The beat streak should continue at the next earnings print. | →Stable |
| CounterWith growth weak and revenue declining sharply, EPS beats are likely being driven by cost cuts rather than durable revenue growth. | ||
MiMedx's revenue is declining sharply, down 33% YoY, and the Rule of 40 combined growth-plus-margin metric registers a failing reading.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive within a few quarters.
CounterStrong cash conversion and a solid Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 suggest the company is still generating cash efficiently even amid the top-line contraction.
MiMedx offers 45% modeled upside to its analyst target against just 6.6% downside to its stop-loss, an unusually favorable risk/reward ratio of 4.59x.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- The risk/reward ratio should stay well above 3.0x as the price target holds.
CounterThe stock is down sharply from its 52-week high, a drawdown the engine flags as part of its speculative suitability classification, so the favorable ratio partly reflects how far the stock has already fallen.
The stock has triggered a death-cross hard block and remains below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend, though the engine notes improving MACD, consistent with a recovery setup.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim its 200-day moving average as the recovery setup plays out.
CounterA death-cross hard block is a significant technical warning, and improving MACD alone has not yet been sufficient to reverse the confirmed downtrend.
MiMedx has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 44.7%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue at the next earnings print.
CounterWith growth weak and revenue declining sharply, EPS beats are likely being driven by cost cuts rather than durable revenue growth.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MiMedx offers an unusually favorable risk-reward setup and a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak, but a sharp revenue decline and a death-cross-confirmed technical downtrend keep the position squarely in speculative, recovery-dependent territory.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.6 |
| ROA | 5.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 3.9 |
| Current ratio | 7.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 198% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -17 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -33%
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.6 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 65%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
0.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:24d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
4.07
Upside
+43.9%
Downside
10.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 24d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -50% (>40% off 52w high), Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.07 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.5, Value at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Technical at 0.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.07 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Favorable Risk Reward
Trip ifRisk-reward ratio falls below 2.0, reversing from the current 4.59.
- P2Sharp Revenue Decline
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% YoY, reversing the current -33% decline.
- P3Death Cross Downtrend Recovery
Trip ifPrice rises back above its 200-day moving average, clearing the current death-cross block.
- P4Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the next earnings print.