Value
6.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.2 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.6x
MDA · Why this verdict
Why MDA Space (MDA) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MDA Space shows near-perfect balance-sheet mechanics and volume accumulation, but weak growth and a stock price already above its analyst target keep the engine's overall score at a weak 4.8 out of 10.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
MDA Space shows a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, indicating broad-based improvement across profitability, leverage, and efficiency metrics. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should stay at 8 or above over the next several quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe engine's overall score remains weak, driven by weak growth, so strong balance-sheet mechanics haven't yet translated into a compelling overall investment case. | ||
MDA Space's growth score sits weak, with revenue and earnings growth both registering only modest single-digit readings. Bear case | Revenue growth should accelerate to a double-digit YoY pace. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterAerospace and defense contractors often see growth realized in lumpy, contract-driven cycles rather than smooth quarterly progressions, so near-term weak growth data may understate a backlog-driven outlook. | ||
The stock is trading above its analyst price target, implying negative modeled upside against 7% downside. Warnings | Analyst price targets should be raised so that modeled upside turns positive. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLight analyst coverage means the current price target itself may be stale and due for a refresh independent of any fundamental change. | ||
On-balance volume is rising, indicating accumulation, and the overall momentum score exceeds the engine's threshold. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should stay above the engine's 4.5 threshold. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRising volume without matching improvement in the weak growth and valuation metrics could simply reflect short-term speculative trading rather than a durable re-rating. | ||
MDA Space shows a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, indicating broad-based improvement across profitability, leverage, and efficiency metrics.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should stay at 8 or above over the next several quarters.
CounterThe engine's overall score remains weak, driven by weak growth, so strong balance-sheet mechanics haven't yet translated into a compelling overall investment case.
MDA Space's growth score sits weak, with revenue and earnings growth both registering only modest single-digit readings.
Tripped↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should accelerate to a double-digit YoY pace.
CounterAerospace and defense contractors often see growth realized in lumpy, contract-driven cycles rather than smooth quarterly progressions, so near-term weak growth data may understate a backlog-driven outlook.
The stock is trading above its analyst price target, implying negative modeled upside against 7% downside.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should be raised so that modeled upside turns positive.
CounterLight analyst coverage means the current price target itself may be stale and due for a refresh independent of any fundamental change.
On-balance volume is rising, indicating accumulation, and the overall momentum score exceeds the engine's threshold.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should stay above the engine's 4.5 threshold.
CounterRising volume without matching improvement in the weak growth and valuation metrics could simply reflect short-term speculative trading rather than a durable re-rating.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 1.7 |
| Op margin | 2.5 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 3.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -135% FCF/NI
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 34% YoY
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 5.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 6.9 |
Technical
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.1 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 2.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 1.7 |
| put call | 8.4 |
| implied vol | 2.5 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸High IV: 65%
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.2 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.11
Upside
+25.4%
Downside
12.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 2.11.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 1.6, Quality at 3.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.11 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Near Perfect Piotroski Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9, deteriorating from the current 9/9.
- P2Weak GrowthTripped
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 10% YoY, reversing the current weak reading.
- P3Valuation Ceiling
Trip ifAnalyst 12-month upside rises above 0%, reversing from the current -8.9%.
- P4Momentum Volume Accumulation
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5, reversing from the current reading of 6.6.