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MCYMercury General CorporationHold6.8·$102.71

Mercury General (MCY) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage

BEAT+4.2% vs estimateEPS $3.49 vs $3.35 estCurrent verdict Hold 6.8/10

Reported

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy

Event detail · Q3 2026

Key numbers

Adjusted EPS
$3.49
Estimate
$3.35
Surprise
+4.2%
Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
$1.38B
Score today
6.8/10

Revenue source: xbrl.

Report record · Q3 2026

How the report landed

Mercury General (MCY) beat the $3.35 estimate with adjusted EPS of $3.49 — a clear 4.2% upside surprise.

Around the report

Coverage in the report window

  • Mercury General Q3 Adj. EPS $3.49 Beats $3.42 Estimate, Sales $1.381B Miss $1.632B Estimate — benzinga, 2026-11-03
Current read · as of 2026-11-04

Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now

TrendMatrix currently rates MCY Hold at 6.8/10; no pre/post engine snapshot brackets this report.

4 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +4.2% surprise compares with a +51.4% four-quarter average.

What supports the rating

  • Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
  • Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

What argues against it

  • Single-region cliff: 85% exposure to California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.
  • Concentration risk — Geographic: California (85.0%)
  • Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.

Current engine read

The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks

Current price
$102.71
Stop
$97.65

Forward estimates sit below the trailing run-rate (8.4× forward vs 6.1× trailing) — consensus expects earnings to decline from here.

Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-04 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.

Financial Services context

MCY at TrendMatrix's latest read

For financials, the EPS print is only half the story: credit costs, reserve builds, and rate sensitivity decide how a quarter actually lands.

Industry
Insurance - Property & Casualty
Market cap
$5.69B
P/E (fwd)
8.4
P/E (ttm)
6.1
52-week range
$76.00–$113.06
Off 52-week high
9.2%
RSI (14)
51
Volume vs avg
1.35×
Score today
6.8/10

EPS and the estimate come from Yahoo Finance’s earnings calendar, captured around the report date. That EPS is the adjusted figure analysts forecast, so it can differ from the GAAP diluted EPS in the company’s filing, and consensus estimates vary between data providers. Revenue comes from SEC XBRL company facts where available, yfinance-provisional otherwise. Not a buy/sell rating, a price target, or investment advice — see the current verdict on the stock’s main page for TrendMatrix’s live read.

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