Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
- ▸Attractively valued
MBUU · Why this verdict
Why Malibu Boats (MBUU) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Malibu Boats screens cheap on a growth-adjusted basis with meaningful analyst-implied upside, but a confirmed technical downtrend, an extreme put/call ratio, and an inconsistent earnings record keep the engine's quality-floor exit signal active.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Malibu Boats trades at a forward P/E of 10.0x with a PEG ratio of 0.20, screening as attractively valued relative to expected growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay contained while the stock re-rates toward its analyst-implied upside. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality score sits well below the engine's 4.0 floor, and the cheap multiple may reflect a genuine deterioration in the business rather than mispricing. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend, and has also triggered the engine's death-cross hard block. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim its 200-day moving average and the moving-average slope should turn positive. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRecreational-vehicle stocks are cyclical and can bottom sharply once consumer discretionary spending data troughs, making current technical weakness a lagging signal. | ||
The put/call ratio has spiked to an extreme 13.84, indicating heavy hedging or bearish positioning in the options market. Options | The put/call ratio should normalize toward more typical levels. | ↑Improving |
| CounterExtreme put/call readings at small-cap names with thin options volume can be driven by a handful of large trades rather than reflecting broad market sentiment. | ||
Malibu Boats has missed EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about -20.7%, reflecting inconsistent execution. Earnings | EPS surprise should turn positive for 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage means individual estimate misses may carry outsized noise relative to more heavily covered peers. | ||
Malibu Boats trades at a forward P/E of 10.0x with a PEG ratio of 0.20, screening as attractively valued relative to expected growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay contained while the stock re-rates toward its analyst-implied upside.
CounterQuality score sits well below the engine's 4.0 floor, and the cheap multiple may reflect a genuine deterioration in the business rather than mispricing.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend, and has also triggered the engine's death-cross hard block.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim its 200-day moving average and the moving-average slope should turn positive.
CounterRecreational-vehicle stocks are cyclical and can bottom sharply once consumer discretionary spending data troughs, making current technical weakness a lagging signal.
The put/call ratio has spiked to an extreme 13.84, indicating heavy hedging or bearish positioning in the options market.
↑ImprovingOptions
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward more typical levels.
CounterExtreme put/call readings at small-cap names with thin options volume can be driven by a handful of large trades rather than reflecting broad market sentiment.
Malibu Boats has missed EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about -20.7%, reflecting inconsistent execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise should turn positive for 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterLight analyst coverage means individual estimate misses may carry outsized noise relative to more heavily covered peers.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.8 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
3.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.3 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 9.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.7 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.7 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 3.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.41
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.09
Upside
+12.4%
Downside
11.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.1<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 7.9 and asymmetric R:R of 1.09.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Sentiment at 6.1, and Momentum at 5.7; the weakest are Quality at 2.2, Catalyst at 3.3, and Growth at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Growth Adjusted Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 7x from the current 10.0x.
- P2Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifPrice rises back above its 200-day moving average, reversing the current confirmed downtrend.
- P3Extreme Put Call Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 3.0 from the current 13.84.
- P4Earnings Inconsistency
Trip ifEPS surprise rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the recent miss pattern.