Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $2.06
- Estimate
- $1.39
- Surprise
- +47.9%
- Score today
- 7.1/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) beat the $1.39 estimate with adjusted EPS of $2.06 — a large 47.9% upside surprise.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates MBIN Buy (Wait) at 7.1/10; no pre/post engine snapshot brackets this report.
4 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +47.9% surprise compares with a +28.3% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
- Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Regulatory: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae
- V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)
- News modifier +2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $49.13
- Entry target
- $48.03
- Price target
- $54.40
- Stop
- $45.92
- Upside to target
- +10.7%
- Reward-to-risk
- 2.1:1
The stock trades at 9.9× trailing but 8.2× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-29 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
MBIN at TrendMatrix's latest read
For financials, the EPS print is only half the story: credit costs, reserve builds, and rate sensitivity decide how a quarter actually lands.
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
- Market cap
- $2.26B
- P/E (fwd)
- 8.2
- P/E (ttm)
- 9.9
- 52-week range
- $30.37–$56.87
- Off 52-week high
- 13.6%
- RSI (14)
- 46
- Volume vs avg
- 0.91×
- Score today
- 7.1/10