Mattel (MAT) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $1.30
- Estimate
- $0.94
- Surprise
- +38.3%
- Score today
- 5.6/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
Mattel (MAT) beat the $0.94 estimate with adjusted EPS of $1.30 — a large 38.3% upside surprise.
Coverage in the report window
- Mattel, Inc. Reports Q3 2026 Financial Results and Updates Annual Guidance — fiscal.ai, 2026-11-05
- Mattel Stock Drops on Q3 Results: Hot Wheels Growth Can’t Muscle Past Barbie Declines — benzinga, 2026-11-05
- Mattel Lowers FY2026 Adj EPS Guidance from $1.27-$1.39 to $1.05-$1.20 vs $1.29 Est; Lowers FY2026 Sales Guidance from $5 — benzinga, 2026-11-05
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates MAT Sell at 5.6/10; no pre/post engine snapshot brackets this report.
1 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +38.3% surprise compares with a -15.9% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Attractive valuation
- Margin of safety: 38%
What argues against it
- Thin upside margin: 7.3%
- V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)
- Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $14.97
- Price target
- $16.06
- Stop
- $14.45
- Upside to target
- +7.3%
- Reward-to-risk
- 1.0:1
At 11.0× trailing and 9.5× forward earnings, consensus estimates imply little change in earnings power.
Risk check: RSI 19 — a level conventionally read as oversold.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-06 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
MAT at TrendMatrix's latest read
Cyclical consumer names live and die on demand momentum — same-quarter comps and guidance carry more weight than the headline surprise.
- Industry
- Leisure
- Market cap
- $4.28B
- P/E (fwd)
- 9.5
- P/E (ttm)
- 11.0
- 52-week range
- $12.40–$22.48
- Off 52-week high
- 33.4%
- RSI (14)
- 19
- Volume vs avg
- 1.01×
- Score today
- 5.6/10