Value
9.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
MAGN · Why this verdict
Why Magnera (MAGN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Magnera trades at a statistically cheap valuation (7.5x forward P/E), but declining revenue, a death-cross technical breakdown, and an inconsistent earnings record all support the engine's quality-floor exit signal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Magnera trades at a forward P/E of just 7.5x with a PEG ratio of 0.05, an unusually cheap valuation relative to its growth. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E should stay below 10x while the stock re-rates higher toward peer multiples. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is declining 3% YoY, so the cheap multiple may reflect deteriorating fundamentals rather than mispricing. | ||
Magnera's revenue is declining 3% YoY, and the engine's quality score sits below its 4.0 minimum floor, triggering an exit recommendation. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive and the quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterA cheap valuation on a growth-adjusted basis may already price in the current top-line weakness, limiting further downside. | ||
The stock has triggered a hard technical block via a death-cross pattern, with momentum reading 4.2, below the engine's 4.5 threshold. Engine gate (failed) | The death-cross technical block should clear and momentum should recover above the 4.5 threshold. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTechnical death crosses are lagging indicators and can occur near cyclical lows rather than signaling further declines. | ||
Magnera has missed EPS estimates in 2 of its last 3 reported quarters, with an average surprise of about -15%, indicating inconsistent execution. Earnings | EPS surprise should turn positive for 2 consecutive quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe company's small size may mean estimates are less well-covered and less accurate to begin with, amplifying noise in the surprise metric. | ||
Magnera trades at a forward P/E of just 7.5x with a PEG ratio of 0.05, an unusually cheap valuation relative to its growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E should stay below 10x while the stock re-rates higher toward peer multiples.
CounterRevenue is declining 3% YoY, so the cheap multiple may reflect deteriorating fundamentals rather than mispricing.
Magnera's revenue is declining 3% YoY, and the engine's quality score sits below its 4.0 minimum floor, triggering an exit recommendation.
Tripped↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive and the quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor.
CounterA cheap valuation on a growth-adjusted basis may already price in the current top-line weakness, limiting further downside.
The stock has triggered a hard technical block via a death-cross pattern, with momentum reading 4.2, below the engine's 4.5 threshold.
↑ImprovingEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The death-cross technical block should clear and momentum should recover above the 4.5 threshold.
CounterTechnical death crosses are lagging indicators and can occur near cyclical lows rather than signaling further declines.
Magnera has missed EPS estimates in 2 of its last 3 reported quarters, with an average surprise of about -15%, indicating inconsistent execution.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise should turn positive for 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterThe company's small size may mean estimates are less well-covered and less accurate to begin with, amplifying noise in the surprise metric.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.7 |
| MACD | 0.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 5.1 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.4 |
| quality rank | 1.7 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 7.4 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 4.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.2 |
| debt equity | 3.1 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:99d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.54
Upside
+5.7%
Downside
10.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.7<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.5 and asymmetric R:R of 0.54.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Technical at 7.4, and Growth at 6.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.7, Catalyst at 3.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.54 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 5x from the current 7.5x.
- P2Revenue Decline Quality FloorTripped
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% YoY, reversing the current -3% decline.
- P3Death Cross Technical Breakdown
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5, clearing the current reading of 4.2.
- P4Earnings Inconsistency
Trip ifEPS surprise rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the recent miss pattern.