Value
6.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
LYNX · Why this verdict
Why Lyntris (LYNX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Lyntris is a fast-growing aerospace and defense company (35% YoY growth) with weak quality and no moat, facing extreme insider selling of $155M (13.0% of market cap) and a falling price. The analyst target implies 66.4% upside, but light coverage dampens that signal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is weak at 2.9 out of 10, with no competitive moat and gross and operating margin scores of 1.6 and 1.5. Quality breakdown | Margins should expand if the growth is to translate into earnings quality. | →Stable |
| CounterEarly-stage defense contractors often carry thin margins while scaling, and the Piotroski F-Score of 4.4 is near mid-range. | ||
Growth is strong at 35% YoY, which ranks the company well within its industry peers on growth. Growth breakdown | Revenue should continue to grow above 20% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth with a net margin score of zero suggests revenue is not yet turning into profit, and the company has little earnings history in the data. | ||
Insiders have sold heavily: 9 sales and no buys in 90 days totaling $155.4M, which is 13.034% of market cap. Insider | Insider selling should stay elevated; a pause with no further sales would signal the overhang has cleared. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLarge sales by early holders after a listing are often for diversification or lockup expiry, not a view on the business, and institutions are accumulating. | ||
The price of $10.28 is 66.4% below the $17.11 analyst target, with 12.1% downside to the stop, though coverage is light and the signal is dampened. Upside pct | The stock should narrow the gap to the analyst target if the selling overhang clears. | →Stable |
| CounterA target based on light coverage may be stale or unreliable, and the stock can stay below it for a long time. | ||
Momentum is negative: RSI is 28, the price is below its 200-day average and falling on-balance volume shows distribution. Momentum breakdown | The price should stabilize and volume distribution should reverse before a recovery can begin. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA capitulation reading with RSI at 28 is often followed by a rebound, and technical support scores are high. | ||
Business quality is weak at 2.9 out of 10, with no competitive moat and gross and operating margin scores of 1.6 and 1.5.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should expand if the growth is to translate into earnings quality.
CounterEarly-stage defense contractors often carry thin margins while scaling, and the Piotroski F-Score of 4.4 is near mid-range.
Growth is strong at 35% YoY, which ranks the company well within its industry peers on growth.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should continue to grow above 20% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth with a net margin score of zero suggests revenue is not yet turning into profit, and the company has little earnings history in the data.
Insiders have sold heavily: 9 sales and no buys in 90 days totaling $155.4M, which is 13.034% of market cap.
↑ImprovingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling should stay elevated; a pause with no further sales would signal the overhang has cleared.
CounterLarge sales by early holders after a listing are often for diversification or lockup expiry, not a view on the business, and institutions are accumulating.
The price of $10.28 is 66.4% below the $17.11 analyst target, with 12.1% downside to the stop, though coverage is light and the signal is dampened.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- The stock should narrow the gap to the analyst target if the selling overhang clears.
CounterA target based on light coverage may be stale or unreliable, and the stock can stay below it for a long time.
Momentum is negative: RSI is 28, the price is below its 200-day average and falling on-balance volume shows distribution.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price should stabilize and volume distribution should reverse before a recovery can begin.
CounterA capitulation reading with RSI at 28 is often followed by a rebound, and technical support scores are high.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 1.6 |
| Op margin | 1.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 4.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 71%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $155,357,039 (11.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 7.2 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 6.3 |
| 52w position | 4.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 9.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.5>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- INSIDER:11.00%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.53
Upside
+49.2%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the INSIDER gate's 11.00%=EXTREME outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 4.53.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.9, and Value at 6.7; the weakest are Quality at 2.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2, and Peer rank at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.53 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from the current 35%.
- P2Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling over 90 days falls below 1% of market cap from the current 13.0%.
- P3Weak Quality No Moat
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.9.
- P4Analyst Upside Light Coverage
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target falls below 20% from the current 66.4%.
- P5Capitulation Downtrend
Trip ifPrice falls below the $9.96 stop level, more than 3% below the current $10.28.