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LTMLATAM Airlines Group S.A.Sell6.5·$52.57+1.62%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

LATAM Airlines is executing with exceptional precision — a perfect four-quarter beat streak averaging roughly 35% above consensus including a 70% positive surprise most recently, against 22% year-over-year earnings growth at a forward P/E of 8.1x — but a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.4 is the primary financial vulnerability if the growth runway shortens.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Attractive Valuation Growth FranchiseStable
  • Strong Revenue Growth MomentumDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthHigh Confidence

Industrials · Airlines

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $52.57: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

LATAM Airlines Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services in Chile, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil, the United States, other Latin American countries, the Caribbean, Europe, and Oceania. As of December 31,... Read more

$52.57+22.1% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#2 of 16 Airlines
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.99%(5y avg 1.14%)Payout28.28%sustainable
Stop $49.45Target $64.14(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$73.72+40.2%9 analysts
$64.14our TP
$52.57price
$73.72mean
$80

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $52.57: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 19, 202676d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.5): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.5
P/E (Fwd)8.1
Mkt Cap
EV/EBITDA5.7
Profit Mgn9.9%
ROE108.0%
Rev Growth27.2%
Beta0.89
Dividend2.99%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.32bullish
IV46%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5A.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $49.19Resistance $55.95

Price Targets

$49
$64
A.Upside+22.1%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts13
Consensus4.0/5
Avg Target$74

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-19 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LTM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $52.57: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $49.45. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.

What is the LTM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $64.14 (+22.1% upside). Prior stop was $49.45. Stop-loss: $49.45.

What are the risks of investing in LTM?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.5): -1.5.

Is LTM overvalued or undervalued?

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. trades at a P/E of 9.5 (forward 8.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LTM?

13 analysts cover LTM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $74.

What does LATAM Airlines Group S.A. do?LATAM Airlines Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services in...

LATAM Airlines Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services in Chile, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil, the United States, other Latin American countries, the Caribbean, Europe, and Oceania. As of December 31, 2024, the company provides passenger transport services to 160 destinations in 27 countries; and operated 371 fleet of aircraft. The company was formerly known as LAN Airlines S.A. and changed its name to LATAM Airlines Group S.A. in June 2012. LATAM Airlines Group S.A. was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Santiago, Chile.

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