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LTMLATAM Airlines Group S.A.Sell6.2·$52.26-0.31%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

LATAM Airlines is executing with exceptional precision — a perfect four-quarter beat streak averaging roughly 35% above consensus including a 70% positive surprise most recently, against 22% year-over-year earnings growth at a forward P/E of 8.1x — but a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.4 is the primary financial vulnerability if the growth runway shortens.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Attractive Valuation Growth FranchiseImproving
  • Strong Revenue Growth MomentumDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Airlines

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $52.26 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.5): -1.5; Negative momentum.

LATAM Airlines Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services in Chile, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil, the United States, other Latin American countries, the Caribbean, Europe, and Oceania. As of December 31,... Read more

$52.26+21.4% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#2 of 16 Airlines
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.91%
IncomeYield2.92%(5y avg 1.14%)Payout28.28%sustainable
Stop $48.60Target $63.46(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$72.94+39.6%9 analysts
$63.46our TP
$52.26price
$72.94mean
$80

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $52.26 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.5): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 19, 202696d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.5): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.7
P/E (Fwd)8.3
Mkt Cap$15.3B
EV/EBITDA5.8
Profit Mgn9.9%
ROE108.0%
Rev Growth27.2%
Beta0.89
Dividend2.92%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$65+24.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.3
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 96d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $49.26Resistance $59.18

Price Targets

$49
$63
A.Upside+21.4%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-19 (96d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LTM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $52.26 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.5): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $48.60. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LTM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $63.46 (+21.4% upside). Prior stop was $48.60. Stop-loss: $48.60.

What are the risks of investing in LTM?

Leverage penalty (D/E 4.5): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is LTM overvalued or undervalued?

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. trades at a P/E of 9.7 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LTM?

13 analysts cover LTM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $73.

What does LATAM Airlines Group S.A. do?LATAM Airlines Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services in...

LATAM Airlines Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services in Chile, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil, the United States, other Latin American countries, the Caribbean, Europe, and Oceania. As of December 31, 2024, the company provides passenger transport services to 160 destinations in 27 countries; and operated 371 fleet of aircraft. The company was formerly known as LAN Airlines S.A. and changed its name to LATAM Airlines Group S.A. in June 2012. LATAM Airlines Group S.A. was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Santiago, Chile.

Related stocks: CPA (Copa Holdings, S.A.) · ALGT (Allegiant Travel Company) · DAL (Delta Air Lines, Inc.) · AERO (Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V) · SKYW (SkyWest, Inc.)
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