Value
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.12
- ▸Attractively valued
LMB · Why this verdict
Why Limbach Holdings (LMB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Limbach pairs strong growth (22% YoY), excellent cash conversion and insider buying with a deep downtrend (price in a death cross, 59% off its 52-week high). The thesis is that fundamentals and valuation outweigh the weak price action, with the stock 37.2% below the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Cash generation is excellent at 127% FCF-to-net-income and the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 7/9, offsetting weak gross and operating margins. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion should stay above 100% of net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGross margin (score 0.7) and operating margin (score 1.7) are very weak, and overall quality is only 4.9 out of 10, so cash conversion may rest on working-capital timing. | ||
Growth is strong: the data shows 22% year-over-year growth, and revenue reached $173.5M in the June 2026 quarter versus $142.2M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should keep growing double digits year over year, with the next-quarter estimate near $218.6M. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly revenue is lumpy and the latest EPS of 0.64 missed the 0.93 estimate, so growth may not be converting to earnings as expected. | ||
The stock is cheaply valued at a forward P/E of 10.1x and a PEG of 0.12, with the price 37.2% below the analyst target of $65.25. Valuation breakdown | Valuation multiples should stay low relative to growth, and the price should close part of the gap to the analyst target. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple may reflect the market pricing in cyclical or margin risk, and analyst targets can be cut after a miss. | ||
Insiders are net buyers: 7 buys against 1 sale in 90 days, a net of about $260,150, which signals management confidence at depressed prices. Insider | Insider purchases should continue or net selling should stay near zero while the price is depressed. | →Stable |
| CounterThe net buying is only 0.046% of market cap, too small to be a meaningful signal. | ||
The price trend is a confirmed downtrend: below the 200-day average with a 30-day slope of -5.1%, a death cross and a drawdown of 59% from the 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | The price must stabilize and reclaim its 200-day average for the valuation upside to be realized. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHeavy put activity (put/call 15.20) and 82% implied volatility suggest the market sees further downside before earnings in 10 days. | ||
Cash generation is excellent at 127% FCF-to-net-income and the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 7/9, offsetting weak gross and operating margins.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion should stay above 100% of net income over the next 12 months.
CounterGross margin (score 0.7) and operating margin (score 1.7) are very weak, and overall quality is only 4.9 out of 10, so cash conversion may rest on working-capital timing.
Growth is strong: the data shows 22% year-over-year growth, and revenue reached $173.5M in the June 2026 quarter versus $142.2M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should keep growing double digits year over year, with the next-quarter estimate near $218.6M.
CounterQuarterly revenue is lumpy and the latest EPS of 0.64 missed the 0.93 estimate, so growth may not be converting to earnings as expected.
The stock is cheaply valued at a forward P/E of 10.1x and a PEG of 0.12, with the price 37.2% below the analyst target of $65.25.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Valuation multiples should stay low relative to growth, and the price should close part of the gap to the analyst target.
CounterA low multiple may reflect the market pricing in cyclical or margin risk, and analyst targets can be cut after a miss.
Insiders are net buyers: 7 buys against 1 sale in 90 days, a net of about $260,150, which signals management confidence at depressed prices.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider purchases should continue or net selling should stay near zero while the price is depressed.
CounterThe net buying is only 0.046% of market cap, too small to be a meaningful signal.
The price trend is a confirmed downtrend: below the 200-day average with a 30-day slope of -5.1%, a death cross and a drawdown of 59% from the 52-week high.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price must stabilize and reclaim its 200-day average for the valuation upside to be realized.
CounterHeavy put activity (put/call 15.20) and 82% implied volatility suggest the market sees further downside before earnings in 10 days.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.7 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 2.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 9.2 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 127% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 4.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 60%
Insider
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 7.2 |
| holder change | 7.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $260,150 (0.045% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.0 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.6 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.8 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 0.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.43
- ▸High IV: 103%
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:4.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
4.02
Upside
+39.0%
Downside
9.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -59% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:4.0>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.0; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.0, Value at 8.6, and Peer rank at 7.4; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7, Momentum at 4.2, and Quality at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 18x without a matching rise in earnings estimates.
- P3Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 80% from the current 127%.
- P4Insider Buying Support
Trip ifNet insider buying over a 90-day window falls below $0 (net selling exceeds the current $260,150 of net buying).
- P5Downtrend Price Risk
Trip ifThe price falls below the $45.12 stop level, more than 5% below the current $47.57.