Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.41
- ▸Attractively valued
LKFN · Why this verdict
Why Lakeland Financial (LKFN) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Strong underlying fundamentals — a 13.4x forward multiple with a 0.40 PEG, 41% net margins, and three beats in the last four quarters — are undercut by near-term price exhaustion: the stock sits just 1.1% below its technical target with a reward/risk ratio of 0.22, making further accumulation unattractive at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 13.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.40, the bank screens attractively valued relative to its growth rate, implying room for multiple expansion if earnings momentum persists. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E remains below 16x over the next four quarters while consensus EPS estimates hold or increase. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAttractive valuation has not attracted new buyers — the stock is already 1.1% from its technical resistance target, suggesting the market has largely priced in the quality, leaving the value case as a holding argument rather than an entry catalyst. | ||
Three beats in the last four reported quarters with an average EPS surprise of 4.77% indicate management is reliably delivering above the consensus bar, a pattern that typically sustains valuation premiums over time. Earnings | EPS surprise remains positive in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports, with average surprise above 3%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe sole miss was only a -1.15% quarter, and recent beat magnitudes have been modest; if outperformance continues to thin, the beat streak may end without a new catalyst to reopen upside to the current price. | ||
Net margins of 41%, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and superior ROE versus regional-bank peers indicate a well-managed bank with above-average financial health and a durable competitive position. Quality breakdown | Net margin remains above 35% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above for the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterBanking franchises are acutely sensitive to credit-cycle turns; a rise in loan-loss provisions or compression in net interest margins could move the 41% net margin below 35% within a single quarter without any change in the underlying loan book. | ||
With only 1.1% of upside remaining to the technical resistance target and a reward/risk ratio of 0.22 — well below a favorable level — the current price offers no meaningful entry margin; potential downside exceeds potential gain by more than 4-to-1. Price targets | Upside to the take-profit level remains below 5% for the next 2 quarters absent a material analyst target revision. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA strong beat in the upcoming July report could prompt analyst upgrades, raising consensus targets and restoring double-digit upside headroom at the current price, converting the exhaustion from structural to temporary. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 13.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.40, the bank screens attractively valued relative to its growth rate, implying room for multiple expansion if earnings momentum persists.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E remains below 16x over the next four quarters while consensus EPS estimates hold or increase.
CounterAttractive valuation has not attracted new buyers — the stock is already 1.1% from its technical resistance target, suggesting the market has largely priced in the quality, leaving the value case as a holding argument rather than an entry catalyst.
Three beats in the last four reported quarters with an average EPS surprise of 4.77% indicate management is reliably delivering above the consensus bar, a pattern that typically sustains valuation premiums over time.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains positive in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports, with average surprise above 3%.
CounterThe sole miss was only a -1.15% quarter, and recent beat magnitudes have been modest; if outperformance continues to thin, the beat streak may end without a new catalyst to reopen upside to the current price.
Net margins of 41%, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and superior ROE versus regional-bank peers indicate a well-managed bank with above-average financial health and a durable competitive position.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin remains above 35% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above for the next four quarters.
CounterBanking franchises are acutely sensitive to credit-cycle turns; a rise in loan-loss provisions or compression in net interest margins could move the 41% net margin below 35% within a single quarter without any change in the underlying loan book.
With only 1.1% of upside remaining to the technical resistance target and a reward/risk ratio of 0.22 — well below a favorable level — the current price offers no meaningful entry margin; potential downside exceeds potential gain by more than 4-to-1.
↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Upside to the take-profit level remains below 5% for the next 2 quarters absent a material analyst target revision.
CounterA strong beat in the upcoming July report could prompt analyst upgrades, raising consensus targets and restoring double-digit upside headroom at the current price, converting the exhaustion from structural to temporary.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.1 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 41%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.2 |
| EPS growth | 8.7 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $570,247 (0.037% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.3 |
| quality rank | 8.7 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.8 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.6 |
| days to cover | 1.9 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 4 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
- ▸Dividend: 3.4%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.8=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.82
Upside
-9.6%
Downside
5.3%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 7.9 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-1.8=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.9, Value at 7.4, and Quality at 5.9; the weakest are Sentiment at 5.3, Catalyst at 5.6, and Peer rank at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.82 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 18x for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the discount has fully normalized.
- P2Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Best In Class Franchise Quality
Trip ifNet margin falls below 35% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price Target Exhaustion
Trip ifUpside to the take-profit target exceeds 10% following an analyst consensus target revision.