Value
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.0 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
LFTO · Why this verdict
Why Liftoff Mobile (LFTO) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Liftoff Mobile is a fast-growing (35% YoY), high-quality ad-tech business trading at a PEG of 0.02 with 71.5% upside to the analyst target, but the stock is 51% off its high with negative momentum and earnings in 11 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 35% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $162.1M to $219.5M over five reported quarters. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue reaches the $221.4M estimate and keeps growing above 25% YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth data has low confidence (0.33) and mixed-source revenue, and ad-tech spending is cyclical. | ||
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, with a forward P/E of 10.6x and a PEG of 0.02. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 15x while earnings grow over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA PEG this low usually reflects unusually volatile earnings growth inputs and may not be a reliable valuation signal. | ||
Quality is high, with 430% FCF/NI cash conversion, a Rule of 40 score of 58 (pass) and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | Rule of 40 stays above 40 and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterNet margin is thin (2.6/10), so a high FCF/NI ratio may reflect small accounting earnings. | ||
Upside to the $25.37 analyst target is 71.5% against 12.8% downside, but momentum is negative at 3.6/10 and the stock is 51% off its 52-week high. Estimated upside | Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and price closes above the $13.85 entry level. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume and price below key moving averages suggest sellers remain in control, and a breakout has not yet appeared. | ||
Earnings arrive in 11 days with implied volatility of 122%, after one reported beat with an average surprise of 140.8%. Risk breakdown | The company beats and revenue lands near $221.4M at the November 12 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOnly one quarter of earnings history exists, so the beat pattern is not established. | ||
Revenue is growing 35% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $162.1M to $219.5M over five reported quarters.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue reaches the $221.4M estimate and keeps growing above 25% YoY.
CounterGrowth data has low confidence (0.33) and mixed-source revenue, and ad-tech spending is cyclical.
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, with a forward P/E of 10.6x and a PEG of 0.02.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 15x while earnings grow over 12 months.
CounterA PEG this low usually reflects unusually volatile earnings growth inputs and may not be a reliable valuation signal.
Quality is high, with 430% FCF/NI cash conversion, a Rule of 40 score of 58 (pass) and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Rule of 40 stays above 40 and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or higher.
CounterNet margin is thin (2.6/10), so a high FCF/NI ratio may reflect small accounting earnings.
Upside to the $25.37 analyst target is 71.5% against 12.8% downside, but momentum is negative at 3.6/10 and the stock is 51% off its 52-week high.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and price closes above the $13.85 entry level.
CounterFalling on-balance volume and price below key moving averages suggest sellers remain in control, and a breakout has not yet appeared.
Earnings arrive in 11 days with implied volatility of 122%, after one reported beat with an average surprise of 140.8%.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The company beats and revenue lands near $221.4M at the November 12 report.
CounterOnly one quarter of earnings history exists, so the beat pattern is not established.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 6.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 2.6 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 430% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 58 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 1.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 6.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.7 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 95%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.1 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 6.2 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 120%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news activity | 7.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.02, quality 7.6/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:5.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.56
Upside
+75.5%
Downside
13.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.6) with weak momentum (3.0)
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -53% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 7.6 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 5.56 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.8, and Quality at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 3.0, Peer rank at 4.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.56 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Cheap Growth Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 18x from current 10.6x.
- P3High Quality Cash Conversion
Trip ifRule of 40 score falls below 30 from current 58.
- P4Large Upside Negative Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the $12.88 stop-loss level.
- P5Earnings Event High Volatility
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.