Value
10.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
LDI · Why this verdict
Why loanDepot (LDI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
loanDepot trades at a deep discount and is attempting a technical recovery, but a confirmed downtrend, a three-quarter earnings-miss streak, extreme put/call hedging, and sub-floor quality argue the discount reflects real distress rather than a bargain.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
loanDepot trades at a deeply discounted valuation (forward P/E 5.6x, PEG 0.03), implying the market has priced in severe distress that may not be fully warranted. Valuation breakdown | The value score should stay elevated while the stock closes some of the gap toward its analyst-target take-profit level. | →Stable |
| CounterA near-zero PEG at a company with a confirmed price downtrend and a sub-floor quality score is a classic value-trap signature rather than a genuine bargain. | ||
loanDepot has missed EPS estimates in three of its last four quarters (average surprise -193%), reflecting deep structural pressure in the mortgage-origination business. Earnings | The company needs at least one clean beat in coming reports to signal the earnings picture is stabilizing. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA high-rate mortgage environment can produce outsized percentage misses on a very small earnings base without indicating the business itself is deteriorating further. | ||
The company's quality score sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, with no identified competitive moat, a structural concern for a mortgage originator navigating a challenging rate environment. Quality breakdown | Quality score should climb back toward the 4.0 floor as the business demonstrates more resilient margins. | →Stable |
| CounterMortgage originators' quality metrics are highly cyclical and tied to interest-rate cycles, so a temporarily depressed quality score doesn't necessarily reflect a permanent competitive problem. | ||
The stock is attempting a technical recovery after a death cross, with MACD improving and RSI at a neutral-to-firm 57, while volume is accumulating. Chart pattern detection | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average in coming months if the recovery is genuine. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterThe moving average slope remains a confirmed downtrend, and a rising RSI off deeply oversold levels is common even within a continuing structural decline. | ||
An extremely elevated put/call ratio (7.77) alongside high implied volatility (148%) shows the options market is heavily positioned for continued volatility or downside. Options | The put/call ratio should normalize toward more typical levels if downside fears ease. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA skewed put/call ratio at a heavily-shorted small float can also reflect hedging of existing long positions rather than a bearish directional bet. | ||
loanDepot trades at a deeply discounted valuation (forward P/E 5.6x, PEG 0.03), implying the market has priced in severe distress that may not be fully warranted.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay elevated while the stock closes some of the gap toward its analyst-target take-profit level.
CounterA near-zero PEG at a company with a confirmed price downtrend and a sub-floor quality score is a classic value-trap signature rather than a genuine bargain.
loanDepot has missed EPS estimates in three of its last four quarters (average surprise -193%), reflecting deep structural pressure in the mortgage-origination business.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company needs at least one clean beat in coming reports to signal the earnings picture is stabilizing.
CounterA high-rate mortgage environment can produce outsized percentage misses on a very small earnings base without indicating the business itself is deteriorating further.
The company's quality score sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, with no identified competitive moat, a structural concern for a mortgage originator navigating a challenging rate environment.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should climb back toward the 4.0 floor as the business demonstrates more resilient margins.
CounterMortgage originators' quality metrics are highly cyclical and tied to interest-rate cycles, so a temporarily depressed quality score doesn't necessarily reflect a permanent competitive problem.
The stock is attempting a technical recovery after a death cross, with MACD improving and RSI at a neutral-to-firm 57, while volume is accumulating.
Tripped→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average in coming months if the recovery is genuine.
CounterThe moving average slope remains a confirmed downtrend, and a rising RSI off deeply oversold levels is common even within a continuing structural decline.
An extremely elevated put/call ratio (7.77) alongside high implied volatility (148%) shows the options market is heavily positioned for continued volatility or downside.
↑ImprovingOptions
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward more typical levels if downside fears ease.
CounterA skewed put/call ratio at a heavily-shorted small float can also reflect hedging of existing long positions rather than a bearish directional bet.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 5.5 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 21, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 1.4 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
1.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.6 |
| days to cover | 1.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.58
- ▸High IV: 152%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
1.08
Upside
+13.5%
Downside
12.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 21, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -80% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.9<4.5 outcome against Value at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 1.08.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 10.0, Insider at 7.3, and Growth at 6.5; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 1.1, Peer rank at 2.5, and Momentum at 2.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.08 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Discount
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0, more than 30x the current 0.03, signaling the value case has closed.
- P2Technical Recovery From Death CrossTripped
Trip ifPrice closes below the $1.14 stop-loss, more than 7% under the $1.23 spot, confirming the downtrend rather than a recovery.
- P3Persistent Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company misses EPS estimates for a 4th consecutive quarter, extending the average surprise below -190%.
- P4Elevated Options Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 2.0, down from the current 7.77, alongside implied volatility below 80%.
- P5Sub Floor Quality No Moat
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0, matching the engine's floor, up from the current 2.9.