Value
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
LBRDK · Why this verdict
Why Liberty Broadband (LBRDK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business fails the minimum acceptable quality threshold—free cash flow is negative, there is no competitive moat, and the financial-health score registers a weak 3 out of 9—structural limitations that transform a superficially attractive valuation into a potential value trap unless fundamentals improve. Warnings | Free cash flow turns positive and the Piotroski F-Score rises above 6 within the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of approximately 5.1x and an extremely low PEG ratio indicate deep discounting on any earnings recovery scenario; quality metrics could improve rapidly if the underlying business relationship generates incremental cash. | ||
Three of the four most recently reported quarters produced earnings misses—including a catastrophic shortfall in the second-most-recent period—eroding the predictability of the earnings stream and challenging any thesis built solely on valuation attractiveness. Earnings | At least two of the next four quarterly EPS reports arrive at or above consensus, with the average surprise turning positive over that window. | →Stable |
| CounterThe earliest quarter in the four-quarter window showed a meaningful beat of approximately 44%, suggesting the business can outperform when conditions align; the deep miss in one quarter may reflect a one-time non-cash charge rather than a structural earnings failure. | ||
Approximately 22.6% of headroom remains to the analyst consensus price target and the risk/reward ratio of roughly 3.2-to-1 clears the minimum asymmetry bar—a price geometry materially more attractive than typical in a cautious setup, providing room for gradual recovery even without full quality resolution. Price targets | Price reaches within 5% of the $41.23 take-profit target within 12 months as analyst sentiment stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterThe favorable ratio is contingent on analysts holding their targets; further earnings misses or continued quality deterioration could trigger target revisions that collapse the 22.6% headroom quickly. | ||
Price sits below the 200-day moving average with the 30-day slope declining at approximately 9.2%, yet MACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising—a tentative recovery signal that has not yet confirmed a trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average over the next two quarters, with the 30-day slope turning positive. | →Stable |
| CounterDeath-cross configurations with declining 200-day slopes have historically produced extended periods of underperformance; MACD improvement alone, absent a price recovery above the long-term moving average, may prove insufficient to sustain a rally. | ||
The business fails the minimum acceptable quality threshold—free cash flow is negative, there is no competitive moat, and the financial-health score registers a weak 3 out of 9—structural limitations that transform a superficially attractive valuation into a potential value trap unless fundamentals improve.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and the Piotroski F-Score rises above 6 within the next four reported quarters.
CounterA forward P/E of approximately 5.1x and an extremely low PEG ratio indicate deep discounting on any earnings recovery scenario; quality metrics could improve rapidly if the underlying business relationship generates incremental cash.
Three of the four most recently reported quarters produced earnings misses—including a catastrophic shortfall in the second-most-recent period—eroding the predictability of the earnings stream and challenging any thesis built solely on valuation attractiveness.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- At least two of the next four quarterly EPS reports arrive at or above consensus, with the average surprise turning positive over that window.
CounterThe earliest quarter in the four-quarter window showed a meaningful beat of approximately 44%, suggesting the business can outperform when conditions align; the deep miss in one quarter may reflect a one-time non-cash charge rather than a structural earnings failure.
Approximately 22.6% of headroom remains to the analyst consensus price target and the risk/reward ratio of roughly 3.2-to-1 clears the minimum asymmetry bar—a price geometry materially more attractive than typical in a cautious setup, providing room for gradual recovery even without full quality resolution.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price reaches within 5% of the $41.23 take-profit target within 12 months as analyst sentiment stabilizes.
CounterThe favorable ratio is contingent on analysts holding their targets; further earnings misses or continued quality deterioration could trigger target revisions that collapse the 22.6% headroom quickly.
Price sits below the 200-day moving average with the 30-day slope declining at approximately 9.2%, yet MACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising—a tentative recovery signal that has not yet confirmed a trend reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average over the next two quarters, with the 30-day slope turning positive.
CounterDeath-cross configurations with declining 200-day slopes have historically produced extended periods of underperformance; MACD improvement alone, absent a price recovery above the long-term moving average, may prove insufficient to sustain a rally.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Liberty Broadband's shares offer approximately 22.6% of upside to the analyst consensus target with a risk/reward ratio above 3-to-1, yet this attractive price setup rests on a quality base that falls below the minimum acceptable level—negative free cash flow, no competitive moat, three of the last four quarters producing earnings misses—and a technical structure still recovering from a death-cross pattern.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning (FCF negative)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.8 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 0.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 51%
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-51.2%)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.4 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 9.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.9 |
| beta | 9.1 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
- ▸High IV: 69%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -51.2% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.23
Upside
+28.3%
Downside
12.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -66% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 10.0, Growth at 10.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.3; the weakest are Quality at 1.3, Catalyst at 1.5, and Peer rank at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Floor Breach Structural
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 6 for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Earnings Miss Pattern Credibility
Trip ifEPS surprise turns positive (above 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Wide Upside Favorable Risk Reward
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is revised down such that implied upside from the current price falls below 10%.
- P4Momentum Recovering Death Cross
Trip ifPrice breaks above the 200-day moving average and holds for 4 consecutive weeks.