Value
9.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
LBRDA · Why this verdict
Why Liberty Broadband (LBRDA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business falls below the minimum acceptable quality threshold—free cash flow is negative, there is no measurable competitive moat, and the financial-health score registers a weak 3 out of 9—indicating the current earnings stream is not self-funding and the balance sheet lacks resilience to absorb further operational setbacks. Warnings | Free cash flow turns positive and the Piotroski F-Score rises above 6 within the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe current ratio of 4.3 indicates short-term liquidity is adequate, and the low forward P/E of approximately 5.7x implies the stock could re-rate sharply if any quality metric improves—making the quality deficit a potential catalyst as much as a constraint. | ||
The company has missed consensus earnings estimates in every one of the four most recently reported quarters, with average EPS arriving roughly 51% below street forecasts—a pattern that erodes analyst credibility and suggests forward estimates remain anchored too high relative to what the business can deliver. Earnings | At least two of the next four quarterly EPS reports arrive at or above consensus, with the rolling average surprise turning positive. | →Stable |
| CounterConsensus estimates may be anchored to an outdated earnings regime; a deliberate re-basing of guidance could stabilize the miss streak without any underlying improvement in profitability. | ||
The options market shows a put/call ratio of 2.50, indicating investors are positioned heavily for further downside—a bearish signal that typically amplifies near-term price weakness and raises the cost of hedging for existing holders. Options | The put/call ratio falls below 1.0 over the next two months as bearish hedging unwinds, signaling reduced near-term fear. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio sometimes reflects protective hedging by long-term holders rather than outright bearishness; if the stock stabilizes, the ratio could compress quickly and reverse into a contrarian buy signal. | ||
With only approximately 3% of headroom to the near-term resistance ceiling and a risk/reward ratio of 0.43—meaning downside risk of approximately 11.8% materially outweighs available upside—the current price geometry does not compensate for the fundamental and technical risks present. Price targets | Price retraces to a level where upside to the take-profit target exceeds 15%, restoring a more attractive entry geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterA rapid resolution of the earnings-miss trend could cause the stock to gap through the resistance ceiling, making proximity to the ceiling a feature for momentum buyers rather than a cap to be respected. | ||
The business falls below the minimum acceptable quality threshold—free cash flow is negative, there is no measurable competitive moat, and the financial-health score registers a weak 3 out of 9—indicating the current earnings stream is not self-funding and the balance sheet lacks resilience to absorb further operational setbacks.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and the Piotroski F-Score rises above 6 within the next four reported quarters.
CounterThe current ratio of 4.3 indicates short-term liquidity is adequate, and the low forward P/E of approximately 5.7x implies the stock could re-rate sharply if any quality metric improves—making the quality deficit a potential catalyst as much as a constraint.
The company has missed consensus earnings estimates in every one of the four most recently reported quarters, with average EPS arriving roughly 51% below street forecasts—a pattern that erodes analyst credibility and suggests forward estimates remain anchored too high relative to what the business can deliver.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- At least two of the next four quarterly EPS reports arrive at or above consensus, with the rolling average surprise turning positive.
CounterConsensus estimates may be anchored to an outdated earnings regime; a deliberate re-basing of guidance could stabilize the miss streak without any underlying improvement in profitability.
The options market shows a put/call ratio of 2.50, indicating investors are positioned heavily for further downside—a bearish signal that typically amplifies near-term price weakness and raises the cost of hedging for existing holders.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio falls below 1.0 over the next two months as bearish hedging unwinds, signaling reduced near-term fear.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio sometimes reflects protective hedging by long-term holders rather than outright bearishness; if the stock stabilizes, the ratio could compress quickly and reverse into a contrarian buy signal.
With only approximately 3% of headroom to the near-term resistance ceiling and a risk/reward ratio of 0.43—meaning downside risk of approximately 11.8% materially outweighs available upside—the current price geometry does not compensate for the fundamental and technical risks present.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price retraces to a level where upside to the take-profit target exceeds 15%, restoring a more attractive entry geometry.
CounterA rapid resolution of the earnings-miss trend could cause the stock to gap through the resistance ceiling, making proximity to the ceiling a feature for momentum buyers rather than a cap to be respected.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Liberty Broadband's investment case is undermined by persistent earnings misses averaging approximately 51% below consensus across all four recent quarters, a quality profile well short of the minimum acceptable level due to negative free cash flow and a weak financial-health score, and an options market pricing in significant additional downside—all against a price geometry that leaves virtually no upside cushion.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning (FCF negative)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
3.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 0.0 |
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-51.2%)
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $7,963 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.3 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.4 |
| beta | 9.1 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.00
- ▸High IV: 78%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -51.2% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
12.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -66% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.9, and Insider at 5.1; the weakest are Quality at 1.3, Catalyst at 1.5, and Peer rank at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Persistent Quality Floor Breach
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 6 for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Unbroken Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise turns positive (above 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Bearish Options Market Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Upside Exhausted Unfavorable Geometry
Trip ifUpside to the take-profit target exceeds 15% from the prevailing price.