Value
4.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.4 |
| p ocf | 7.4 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 13.8x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
LAND · Why this verdict
Why Gladstone Land (LAND) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with an FCF margin of 50%, an FCF yield of 10.8% and a Piotroski F-Score of 9 of 9. Quality breakdown | FCF yield stays above 8% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue data conflicts across sources (XBRL $0.3M versus yfinance $12.7M for the June 2026 quarter), so the reported margin may be unreliable. | ||
Price is above the analyst target (upside of -16.3%) against 5.0% downside, so the asymmetry is negative at -3.26 and limited upside remains. Warnings | Upside to the target reopens above 10% only after a pullback or higher targets. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst targets can lag asset-value gains in farmland, and the latest quarter beat estimates by 23.7%. | ||
Momentum of 3.4 fails the engine's 4.5 minimum, with falling on-balance volume signalling distribution. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum recovers above 4.5 before a position is justified. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice is still above its 200-day average and the chart is range-bound with RSI 44, so the weakness may be mild. | ||
The 5.9% dividend yield provides income support, though dividend safety scores only a middling 5.2. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend yield stays at or above 5% with no cut over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGAAP losses and a mixed earnings record (2 beats, 1 miss, 1 inline) make the payout dependent on cash flow holding up. | ||
Short interest of 10% shows meaningful bearish positioning against the stock. Key risks | Short interest declines as results and momentum improve. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated short interest in a low-volatility REIT could fuel a squeeze if earnings on November 5 surprise positively. | ||
The company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with an FCF margin of 50%, an FCF yield of 10.8% and a Piotroski F-Score of 9 of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF yield stays above 8% over the next 12 months.
CounterRevenue data conflicts across sources (XBRL $0.3M versus yfinance $12.7M for the June 2026 quarter), so the reported margin may be unreliable.
Price is above the analyst target (upside of -16.3%) against 5.0% downside, so the asymmetry is negative at -3.26 and limited upside remains.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Upside to the target reopens above 10% only after a pullback or higher targets.
CounterAnalyst targets can lag asset-value gains in farmland, and the latest quarter beat estimates by 23.7%.
Momentum of 3.4 fails the engine's 4.5 minimum, with falling on-balance volume signalling distribution.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 before a position is justified.
CounterPrice is still above its 200-day average and the chart is range-bound with RSI 44, so the weakness may be mild.
The 5.9% dividend yield provides income support, though dividend safety scores only a middling 5.2.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend yield stays at or above 5% with no cut over 12 months.
CounterGAAP losses and a mixed earnings record (2 beats, 1 miss, 1 inline) make the payout dependent on cash flow holding up.
Short interest of 10% shows meaningful bearish positioning against the stock.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines as results and momentum improve.
CounterElevated short interest in a low-volatility REIT could fuel a squeeze if earnings on November 5 surprise positively.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 50%, FCF yield 11.6%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 54 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 1.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.7 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.1 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 4.9 |
| volatility | 4.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
Catalyst
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings in 10 days
- ▸Dividend: 6.3%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $383M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:10d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.74
Upside
-10.6%
Downside
6.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.9<4.5 outcome against Technical at 6.5 and asymmetric R:R of -1.74.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 6.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.2, and Sentiment at 5.4; the weakest are Growth at 3.6, Peer rank at 3.8, and Momentum at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.74 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Free Cash Flow Despite Loss
Trip ifFree cash flow yield falls below 6% from current 10.8%.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target rises above 10% from current -16.3%.
- P3Negative Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from current 3.4.
- P4Dividend Income Support
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 4% from current 5.9%.
- P5High Short Interest Pressure
Trip ifShort interest falls below 5% from current 10%.