Value
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 54.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.31
- ▸Attractively valued
KRNT · Why this verdict
Why Kornit Digital (KRNT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Kornit Digital shows a favorable modeled asymmetry with 27.3% upside against 7.9% downside and a run of 3 consecutive earnings beats, but quality sits below the engine's floor, the stock trades at a rich forward P/E of 57.0x, and modest insider selling has produced a bearish signal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The quality composite score of 2.3 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by weak margins and no competitive moat. Warnings | Quality score should recover to at least 4.0 over the next 12 months for the position to be re-considered viable. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 6.7 out of 9 suggests underlying balance-sheet fundamentals are healthier than the margin-driven quality score implies. | ||
The V9 expert panel shows an asymmetry ratio of 3.44, with modeled upside of 27.3% against downside of 7.9%, comfortably clearing the 1.5 gate threshold. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should stay above 2.0 and modeled upside should remain above 15% over the next 12 months if the favorable risk/reward holds. | →Stable |
| CounterA small-cap stock below institutional reach can see its modeled asymmetry swing quickly on light trading volume or a single analyst target revision. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 111.7%. Earnings | Beat rate should stay at 3 of 4 or better and average surprise should remain positive over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats against very small estimate bases (fractions of a cent) can produce outsized percentage surprises that overstate the real magnitude of earnings improvement. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 57.0x, though its PEG ratio of 0.33 is flagged as attractively valued relative to its growth rate. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should compress below 40x or PEG should stay below 0.5 over the next 12 months if the growth-adjusted valuation thesis holds. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E this high leaves little room for error, and any slowdown in earnings growth could trigger a sharp multiple re-rating lower. | ||
Insiders sold a net $204,846 (0.028% of market cap) in the last 90 days with zero offsetting buys, producing a bearish insider signal. Insider | Insider signal should shift to neutral or bullish with net buying activity over the next 12 months if the bearish read is not predictive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe dollar amount and share of market cap sold are both described as modest, so this may be routine diversification rather than a meaningful negative signal. | ||
The quality composite score of 2.3 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by weak margins and no competitive moat.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality score should recover to at least 4.0 over the next 12 months for the position to be re-considered viable.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 6.7 out of 9 suggests underlying balance-sheet fundamentals are healthier than the margin-driven quality score implies.
The V9 expert panel shows an asymmetry ratio of 3.44, with modeled upside of 27.3% against downside of 7.9%, comfortably clearing the 1.5 gate threshold.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should stay above 2.0 and modeled upside should remain above 15% over the next 12 months if the favorable risk/reward holds.
CounterA small-cap stock below institutional reach can see its modeled asymmetry swing quickly on light trading volume or a single analyst target revision.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 111.7%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat rate should stay at 3 of 4 or better and average surprise should remain positive over the next four reported quarters.
CounterBeats against very small estimate bases (fractions of a cent) can produce outsized percentage surprises that overstate the real magnitude of earnings improvement.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 57.0x, though its PEG ratio of 0.33 is flagged as attractively valued relative to its growth rate.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should compress below 40x or PEG should stay below 0.5 over the next 12 months if the growth-adjusted valuation thesis holds.
CounterA forward P/E this high leaves little room for error, and any slowdown in earnings growth could trigger a sharp multiple re-rating lower.
Insiders sold a net $204,846 (0.028% of market cap) in the last 90 days with zero offsetting buys, producing a bearish insider signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider signal should shift to neutral or bullish with net buying activity over the next 12 months if the bearish read is not predictive.
CounterThe dollar amount and share of market cap sold are both described as modest, so this may be routine diversification rather than a meaningful negative signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.8 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -0% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 10.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (3.4x avg) on up move
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 53%
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 4.5 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $204,846 (0.030% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 3.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.2 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 91%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
4.38
Upside
+30.5%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 11d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.73>1.3, MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 7.5 and asymmetric R:R of 4.38.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Catalyst at 7.5, and Momentum at 7.0; the weakest are Quality at 2.7, Insider at 3.7, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.38 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score falls below 1.0, further below the 4.0 floor.
- P2Favorable Asymmetry Upside
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.5, reversing the currently passed 3.44 reading.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the current beat streak.
- P4Rich Forward Pe Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 70x, up from the current 57.0x.
- P5Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $500,000 over a 90-day period, up from the current $204,846.