Value
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.4 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.19
KN · Why this verdict
Why Knowles (KN) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Three consecutive earnings beats, a confirmed breakout technical setup, and solid business quality metrics present a fundamentally sound profile, but the stock already trades above its near-term resistance target with downside exceeding upside and high customer concentration representing a structural vulnerability that could impair the earnings stream.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Approximately 76% of revenues flow from just five customers, creating a structurally fragile revenue base — a material reduction in business from any single key account could have a disproportionate impact on reported results and the growth narrative. Bear case | Top-five customer revenue concentration declines below 65% over the next four reported quarters as new customer relationships are established. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh concentration among a small number of sophisticated customers in this industry can reflect deep technical integration and long product-design cycles that make switching costly; if these relationships are entrenched, the concentration signals partnership depth rather than customer dependency risk. | ||
After an in-line quarter at the oldest point in the lookback, the company has delivered three consecutive earnings beats — with the most recent coming in approximately 14% above estimates — indicating a disciplined guidance practice and steady operational delivery. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least three of the next four reported quarters, extending the streak. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeat margins have varied between roughly 2% and 14% across the three recent quarters; the narrower beats may reflect estimates catching up to actual performance, making consistent outperformance harder to sustain as the guidance bar resets higher. | ||
A golden cross pattern — shorter-term moving averages crossing above longer-term ones — combined with RSI at 62 and a constructive MACD configuration signals that price momentum is firmly positive and the technical trend is intact. Engine gate (passed) | Price remains above the 200-day moving average with RSI holding between 50 and 75 for at least 60 consecutive days. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock already trades above its near-term resistance target, meaning the breakout may be fully priced; at current levels there is more measured downside than remaining upside to target, limiting the practical value of the technical setup for new entrants. | ||
The stock trades above its near-term resistance target with downside to support exceeding upside to the target — a configuration where new buyers absorb more risk than available reward, making current price levels an unattractive entry point even for a fundamentally sound business. Engine gate (failed) | The stock pulls back enough to provide at least 10% upside to the near-term target, or analyst price targets advance to restore favorable asymmetry. | →Stable |
| CounterThe very low put/call ratio below 0.2 reflects near-universal near-term bullishness among options market participants; if this sentiment continues to draw buyers, the stock could extend above the current target while analysts revise targets upward, making the current entry look prescient in hindsight. | ||
Approximately 76% of revenues flow from just five customers, creating a structurally fragile revenue base — a material reduction in business from any single key account could have a disproportionate impact on reported results and the growth narrative.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Top-five customer revenue concentration declines below 65% over the next four reported quarters as new customer relationships are established.
CounterHigh concentration among a small number of sophisticated customers in this industry can reflect deep technical integration and long product-design cycles that make switching costly; if these relationships are entrenched, the concentration signals partnership depth rather than customer dependency risk.
After an in-line quarter at the oldest point in the lookback, the company has delivered three consecutive earnings beats — with the most recent coming in approximately 14% above estimates — indicating a disciplined guidance practice and steady operational delivery.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least three of the next four reported quarters, extending the streak.
CounterBeat margins have varied between roughly 2% and 14% across the three recent quarters; the narrower beats may reflect estimates catching up to actual performance, making consistent outperformance harder to sustain as the guidance bar resets higher.
A golden cross pattern — shorter-term moving averages crossing above longer-term ones — combined with RSI at 62 and a constructive MACD configuration signals that price momentum is firmly positive and the technical trend is intact.
→StableEngine gate (passed)
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average with RSI holding between 50 and 75 for at least 60 consecutive days.
CounterThe stock already trades above its near-term resistance target, meaning the breakout may be fully priced; at current levels there is more measured downside than remaining upside to target, limiting the practical value of the technical setup for new entrants.
The stock trades above its near-term resistance target with downside to support exceeding upside to the target — a configuration where new buyers absorb more risk than available reward, making current price levels an unattractive entry point even for a fundamentally sound business.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The stock pulls back enough to provide at least 10% upside to the near-term target, or analyst price targets advance to restore favorable asymmetry.
CounterThe very low put/call ratio below 0.2 reflects near-universal near-term bullishness among options market participants; if this sentiment continues to draw buyers, the stock could extend above the current target while analysts revise targets upward, making the current entry look prescient in hindsight.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.7 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 5.0 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 4.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $5,809,157 (0.185% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.9 |
| support resistance | 6.7 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.7 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.33
- ▸High IV: 68%
- ▸Above max pain $22
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.92
Upside
-15.7%
Downside
8.2%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.59>1.3, MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 8.2 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.2, Catalyst at 6.8, and Technical at 6.5; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4, Momentum at 4.4, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.92 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Execution
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Breakout Technical Momentum
Trip ifPrice breaks below the 200-day moving average and closes below it for more than 10 consecutive sessions.
- P3Customer Concentration Revenue Fragility
Trip ifTop-5 customer revenue concentration falls below 60% for 2 consecutive reported quarters, demonstrating meaningful customer diversification.
- P4Above Target Unfavorable Entry
Trip ifStock rises more than 15% from current levels within 90 days, demonstrating the above-target entry did not constrain additional appreciation.