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KMTSKestra Medical Technologies, LtHold5.2·$25.18+0.14%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Exceptional revenue growth near 63% per year and three consecutive earnings beats demonstrate strong commercial momentum, but deeply negative free cash flow consuming roughly 89% of revenues, below-floor business quality, and a technical setup that has not yet confirmed a resumption of trend strength combine to limit the investable case despite the growth trajectory.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Revenue Growth RateStable
  • Improving Earnings Beat CadenceDeteriorating
  • Severe Cash Burn Viability RiskStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Kestra Medical Technologies, Lt (KMTS) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 3/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Instruments & Supplies

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $25.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: ASSURE WCD; Thin upside margin: 3.7%.

Kestra Medical Technologies is a commercial-stage wearable medical device company selling the ASSURE WCD, a wearable cardioverter defibrillator that protects patients at elevated risk of sudden cardiac arrest, as part of its Cardiac Recovery System platform. The company leases... Read more

$25.18+3.7% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#19 of 30 Medical Instruments & Supplies
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-5.14%
Stop $24.02Target $26.10(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$30.00+19.1%7 analysts
$26.10our TP
$25.18price
$30.00mean
$32

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $25.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: ASSURE WCD; Thin upside margin: 3.7%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Kestra Medical Technologies, Lt

About Kestra Medical Technologies, Lt

Kestra Medical Technologies generated $59.8 million in revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025, up 115% from $27.8 million a year earlier, almost entirely from its ASSURE WCD, a wearable cardioverter defibrillator that received FDA premarket approval on July 27, 2021. The company's commercial efforts remain focused on the U.S. market, where an estimated 285 million insured lives, about 90% of total available lives, are covered for the ASSURE WCD under Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial payor contracts.

Kestra earns revenue primarily by leasing the ASSURE WCD to patients on a month-to-month basis and billing third-party payors — Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurers — directly for wear time, supplemented by patient co-insurance and deductible billing. The device is delivered and fitted by a network of more than 300 contracted patient specialists, supported by roughly 80 direct sales representatives and more than 40 sales and clinical support professionals as of April 30, 2025. Devices are reprocessed and returned to the distribution fleet after each patient's wear period, an asset-reuse model the company says supports unit economics as volume scales. Two pivotal trials, ACE-DETECT and ACE-CONVERT, formed the basis for the ASSURE WCD's premarket approval, and an ongoing post-approval registry, ACE-PAS, had enrolled more than 20,000 patients as of April 30, 2025. The company's only commercial competitor has offered the sole other WCD on the market for more than two decades, a market structure the 10-K frames as a two-player category.

Show full overview

Kestra's growth trajectory is closely tied to third-party reimbursement policy rather than competitive dynamics alone: published Medicare reimbursement rates for WCD therapy rose at a 4.7% CAGR from 2021 to 2025, and the company states its cash flows depend on maintaining broad in-network payor coverage across Medicare, select state Medicaid programs, and national commercial insurers. Because the ASSURE WCD generates nearly all company revenue, any reduction in reimbursement rates or narrowing of payor coverage — rather than only clinical or competitive setbacks — could directly compress gross profit, which reached just $24.2 million in fiscal 2025 versus a $113.8 million net loss.

See also: Healthcare · Medical Instruments & Supplies

From Kestra Medical Technologies, Lt's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04

Recent Developments — Kestra Medical Technologies, Lt

Generated 2026-09-04T15:07:38Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Sep 14, 202610d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: ASSURE WCD
Thin upside margin: 3.7%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-12.4
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA-10.5
Profit Mgn-138.4%
ROE-56.6%
Rev Growth66.2%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductASSURE WCD
    10-K Item 1A: 'We generate revenue primarily by leasing our ASSURE WCD to patients...will continue to account for nearly all of our revenue for the foreseeable future.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.7
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 20)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Analyst Target
5.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 0.36%=HEAVYEARNINGS PROXIMITY 10d<=14d (soft)No SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
20 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.76Resistance $28.89

Price Targets

$24
$26
A.Upside+3.7%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier +2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 2.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-14 (10d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KMTS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $25.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: ASSURE WCD; Thin upside margin: 3.7%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $26.10 (+3.7%), stop $24.02 (−4.8%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KMTS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.10 (+3.7% upside). Target $26.10 (+3.7%), stop $24.02 (−4.8%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Stop-loss: $24.02.

What are the risks of investing in KMTS?

Concentration risk — Product: ASSURE WCD; Thin upside margin: 3.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).

Is KMTS overvalued or undervalued?

Kestra Medical Technologies, Lt trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about KMTS?

14 analysts cover KMTS with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Kestra Medical Technologies, Lt do?Kestra Medical Technologies is a commercial-stage wearable medical device company selling the ASSURE WCD, a wearable...

Kestra Medical Technologies is a commercial-stage wearable medical device company selling the ASSURE WCD, a wearable cardioverter defibrillator that protects patients at elevated risk of sudden cardiac arrest, as part of its Cardiac Recovery System platform. The company leases the ASSURE WCD to patients on a month-to-month basis and bills third-party payors including Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurers, generating $59.8 million in revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025, up from $27.8 million a year earlier.

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