Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.0 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.54
KKR · Why this verdict
Why KKR & Co. (KKR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
KKR's attractively priced earnings power — a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3x and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.53 — and a three-out-of-four recent earnings beat streak are compelling in isolation, but are currently offset by 7% revenue contraction, a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average, and a put/call ratio of 3.18 reflecting broad bearish positioning.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3x and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.53, the stock screens as attractively priced relative to its earnings power, with 15.2% of upside remaining to the analyst-consensus price target of $112.98. Valuation breakdown | The price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio remains below 1.0 and the stock gradually re-rates toward the $112.98 target over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap multiples are only attractive if earnings hold; with revenue declining 7% and quality scoring below average, a further compression in earnings could make the current multiple less compelling than it appears on trailing numbers. | ||
Three of the last four reported quarters came in above estimates with an average positive surprise of 5.2%, signaling that management is consistently delivering results ahead of consensus expectations. Catalyst breakdown | Earnings surprises remain positive for the next two quarters, sustaining the beat track record. | →Stable |
| CounterOne of the four most recent quarters was a miss, and declining revenue may eventually constrain earnings growth even if near-term beats continue through cost discipline alone. | ||
Revenue declined 7% year over year, which is the most fundamental challenge facing this investment case and limits the value of a low multiple without an underlying growth recovery to support it. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive year over year for two consecutive quarters, confirming the contraction was cyclical rather than structural. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.53 implies the market is already pricing in an eventual recovery; if earnings hold through cost discipline, the valuation may already compensate for the revenue softness. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the slope declining at 5.9% over 30 days, establishing a confirmed downtrend that raises the risk of further price deterioration before any momentum reversal takes hold. Momentum breakdown | The price crosses back above the 200-day moving average and holds there for at least four consecutive weeks. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe MACD is improving and RSI sits at 57, reflecting nascent recovery momentum; the downtrend may already be bottoming and a momentum-driven recovery could resolve the technical overhang more quickly than the slope suggests. | ||
A put/call ratio of 3.18 — well above neutral — indicates that a large portion of the options market is positioned for further downside, a headwind that must unwind before a sustainable price recovery can take hold. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio falls below 1.5 over the next two months, signaling reduced bearish hedging and improved sentiment. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios can function as a contrarian bullish signal when they reflect maximum pessimism; a capitulation in bearish hedging could itself become the catalyst for a sharp upside move. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3x and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.53, the stock screens as attractively priced relative to its earnings power, with 15.2% of upside remaining to the analyst-consensus price target of $112.98.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio remains below 1.0 and the stock gradually re-rates toward the $112.98 target over 12 months.
CounterCheap multiples are only attractive if earnings hold; with revenue declining 7% and quality scoring below average, a further compression in earnings could make the current multiple less compelling than it appears on trailing numbers.
Three of the last four reported quarters came in above estimates with an average positive surprise of 5.2%, signaling that management is consistently delivering results ahead of consensus expectations.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings surprises remain positive for the next two quarters, sustaining the beat track record.
CounterOne of the four most recent quarters was a miss, and declining revenue may eventually constrain earnings growth even if near-term beats continue through cost discipline alone.
Revenue declined 7% year over year, which is the most fundamental challenge facing this investment case and limits the value of a low multiple without an underlying growth recovery to support it.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive year over year for two consecutive quarters, confirming the contraction was cyclical rather than structural.
CounterA price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.53 implies the market is already pricing in an eventual recovery; if earnings hold through cost discipline, the valuation may already compensate for the revenue softness.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the slope declining at 5.9% over 30 days, establishing a confirmed downtrend that raises the risk of further price deterioration before any momentum reversal takes hold.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price crosses back above the 200-day moving average and holds there for at least four consecutive weeks.
CounterThe MACD is improving and RSI sits at 57, reflecting nascent recovery momentum; the downtrend may already be bottoming and a momentum-driven recovery could resolve the technical overhang more quickly than the slope suggests.
A put/call ratio of 3.18 — well above neutral — indicates that a large portion of the options market is positioned for further downside, a headwind that must unwind before a sustainable price recovery can take hold.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio falls below 1.5 over the next two months, signaling reduced bearish hedging and improved sentiment.
CounterElevated put/call ratios can function as a contrarian bullish signal when they reflect maximum pessimism; a capitulation in bearish hedging could itself become the catalyst for a sharp upside move.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.4 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 8.3 |
| Net margin | 6.1 |
| Current ratio | 3.4 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.5 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 6.9 |
Technical
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 4.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.0 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $65
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.21
Upside
+3.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.79>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5. Top dim: Insider at 7.3; weakest: Technical at 1.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Growth at 7.2, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 1.5, Peer rank at 4.3, and Momentum at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Peg Discount
Trip ifPrice-to-earnings-to-growth ratio expands above 1.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise turns negative (below 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Revenue Contraction Headwind
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Below 200ma
Trip ifPrice sustains above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P5Elevated Put Call Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.5 for 4 consecutive weeks.