KeyCorp (KEY) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $0.51
- Estimate
- $0.46
- Surprise
- +10.4%
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.0 → 6.1/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
KeyCorp (KEY) beat the $0.46 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.51 — a large 10.4% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (6.0/10) to Hold at 6.1/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates KEY Hold at 6.1/10.
4 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +10.4% surprise compares with a +7.3% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
- Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial loans and commercial leases (72.0%)
- Thin upside margin: 8.6%
- V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $20.81
- Price target
- $22.59
- Stop
- $19.95
- Upside to target
- +8.6%
- Reward-to-risk
- 1.3:1
The stock trades at 12.1× trailing but 9.6× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: trading volume is running 1.9× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-21 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
KEY at TrendMatrix's latest read
For financials, the EPS print is only half the story: credit costs, reserve builds, and rate sensitivity decide how a quarter actually lands.
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
- Market cap
- $22.21B
- P/E (fwd)
- 9.6
- P/E (ttm)
- 12.1
- 52-week range
- $16.91–$24.07
- Off 52-week high
- 13.5%
- RSI (14)
- 65
- Volume vs avg
- 1.94×
- Score today
- 6.1/10