Value
6.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.2 |
| PEG | 6.5 |
- ▸PEG: 1.12
KELYB · Why this verdict
Why Kelly Services (KELYB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Kelly Services is a staffing firm with declining revenue (-6%), no moat and a quality score of 1.9 against a 4.0 floor, trading 78% below its high with an overbought chart and no upside left in the data.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is weak, with no competitive moat and a quality score of 1.9 against a 4.0 minimum. Quality breakdown | Quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as margins recover. | →Stable |
| CounterStaffing is cyclical and trough-cycle margins can understate normalized quality, with a Piotroski score of 4.4/10 not far from average. | ||
Revenue is declining, down 6%, and earnings growth scores 0.0/10, with growth ranked at the bottom of peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth returns to above 0% YoY within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterStaffing demand follows the hiring cycle, so a labor market recovery could reverse the decline quickly. | ||
The stock is overbought (RSI 82) with rising on-balance volume after a 78% drawdown from its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | RSI cools below 70 while the price holds above the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising volume accumulation and a bullish MACD may signal a durable reversal rather than a short-lived rally. | ||
Upside is exhausted at 0.0% against 15.0% downside at $27.35, with no analyst target available. Gates warning | A pullback or an analyst target creates at least 20% upside. | →Stable |
| CounterThe resistance-based take-profit is only a placeholder, so true upside may be higher than the engine shows. | ||
Short-interest and days-to-cover scores are at extremes (9.8 and 10.0 out of 10), and debt-to-equity scores 9.5/10, signaling crowded positioning. Components | Short interest declines as results stabilize. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA crowded short with low float can drive squeezes that push the price well above fundamentals. | ||
Business quality is weak, with no competitive moat and a quality score of 1.9 against a 4.0 minimum.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as margins recover.
CounterStaffing is cyclical and trough-cycle margins can understate normalized quality, with a Piotroski score of 4.4/10 not far from average.
Revenue is declining, down 6%, and earnings growth scores 0.0/10, with growth ranked at the bottom of peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth returns to above 0% YoY within 12 months.
CounterStaffing demand follows the hiring cycle, so a labor market recovery could reverse the decline quickly.
The stock is overbought (RSI 82) with rising on-balance volume after a 78% drawdown from its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cools below 70 while the price holds above the 200-day average.
CounterRising volume accumulation and a bullish MACD may signal a durable reversal rather than a short-lived rally.
Upside is exhausted at 0.0% against 15.0% downside at $27.35, with no analyst target available.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- A pullback or an analyst target creates at least 20% upside.
CounterThe resistance-based take-profit is only a placeholder, so true upside may be higher than the engine shows.
Short-interest and days-to-cover scores are at extremes (9.8 and 10.0 out of 10), and debt-to-equity scores 9.5/10, signaling crowded positioning.
↓DeterioratingComponents
- Expectation
- Short interest declines as results stabilize.
CounterA crowded short with low float can drive squeezes that push the price well above fundamentals.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -6%
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 7.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+4.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -78% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3, Value at 6.5, and Momentum at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 0.6, Quality at 1.9, and Technical at 3.1. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score stays below 4.0 from current 1.9 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue growth stays below -10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Overbought Rally Deep Drawdown
Trip ifRSI stays above 80 for more than 5 trading days without a pullback.
- P4Exhausted Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $25.79 stop-loss level.
- P5High Short Interest Leverage
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 2 from the current level scoring 9.5/10.