Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $1.89
- Estimate
- $2.37
- Surprise
- -20.1%
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.2 → 6.4/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) missed the $2.37 estimate with adjusted EPS of $1.89 — a large 20.1% shortfall. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (6.2/10) to Sell at 6.4/10 after the report — the engine's score rose despite the miss.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates KALU Sell at 6.4/10.
2 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -20.1% surprise compares with a +44.0% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Earnings estimates trending UP
- Attractive valuation
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Customer: top five customers (56.0%)
- Concentration risk — Supplier: Alcoa
- Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $153.95
- Stop
- $143.33
Forward estimates sit below the trailing run-rate (13.2× forward vs 11.4× trailing) — consensus expects earnings to decline from here.
Risk check: trading volume is running 1.8× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-22 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
KALU at TrendMatrix's latest read
Materials producers report against the commodity cycle — realized-price capture and volume, not the EPS line, are the tells in a quarter like this.
- Industry
- Aluminum
- Market cap
- $2.52B
- P/E (fwd)
- 13.2
- P/E (ttm)
- 11.4
- 52-week range
- $77.24–$199.89
- Off 52-week high
- 23.0%
- RSI (14)
- 60
- Volume vs avg
- 1.81×
- Score today
- 6.4/10