Value
9.5/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
- ▸Attractively valued
JRI · Why this verdict
Why Nuveen Real Asset Income and Gr (JRI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
JRI is a $395M real-asset income fund yielding 14.7% but sitting below the $400M market-cap minimum, in a death-cross downtrend with RSI at 17. It is outside the investable universe and the engine shows no upside to the target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 0.9 with a Piotroski F-Score of 0/9 and no competitive moat, while the engine shows 0 upside to the analyst target against 5.0% downside. Quality breakdown | Quality should improve above 4.0 and upside should widen above 10% for the setup to become investable. | — |
| CounterQuality metrics built for operating companies may misjudge a closed-end fund, whose value is its net assets rather than margins. | ||
Market cap of $395M falls below the engine's $400M minimum, so the stock is not in the investable universe. Bear case | Market cap should rise above $400M for the name to become eligible again. | — |
| CounterThe shortfall is only 1.3% below the threshold, so a modest price rebound would restore eligibility without any change in fundamentals. | ||
A death cross is a hard block, with price below all moving averages, RSI at 17 and a bearish MACD, giving a momentum score of 4.1. Warnings | The 50-day average should recover above the 200-day average and momentum should climb above 4.5. | — |
| CounterRSI at 17 is deeply oversold and rising on-balance volume suggests accumulation, so a mean-reversion bounce is plausible. | ||
The fund pays a 14.7% dividend with a dividend-safety score of 5.5 and an attractive P/E score of 9.5. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend should be held at or near 14.7% over 12 months without a cut. | — |
| CounterA yield near 15% on a fund trading at lows often signals the market expects a distribution cut, and the safety score is only middling. | ||
Quality scores 0.9 with a Piotroski F-Score of 0/9 and no competitive moat, while the engine shows 0 upside to the analyst target against 5.0% downside.
—Quality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality should improve above 4.0 and upside should widen above 10% for the setup to become investable.
CounterQuality metrics built for operating companies may misjudge a closed-end fund, whose value is its net assets rather than margins.
Market cap of $395M falls below the engine's $400M minimum, so the stock is not in the investable universe.
—Bear case
- Expectation
- Market cap should rise above $400M for the name to become eligible again.
CounterThe shortfall is only 1.3% below the threshold, so a modest price rebound would restore eligibility without any change in fundamentals.
A death cross is a hard block, with price below all moving averages, RSI at 17 and a bearish MACD, giving a momentum score of 4.1.
—Warnings
- Expectation
- The 50-day average should recover above the 200-day average and momentum should climb above 4.5.
CounterRSI at 17 is deeply oversold and rising on-balance volume suggests accumulation, so a mean-reversion bounce is plausible.
The fund pays a 14.7% dividend with a dividend-safety score of 5.5 and an attractive P/E score of 9.5.
—Catalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend should be held at or near 14.7% over 12 months without a cut.
CounterA yield near 15% on a fund trading at lows often signals the market expects a distribution cut, and the safety score is only middling.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
0.9/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 0.0 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 0/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 17, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
3.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 2.4 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions reducing
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.6 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.2/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.7 |
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 15.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $386M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 17, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.0<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.5 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 9.2, and Technical at 8.2; the weakest are Quality at 0.9, Momentum at 3.0, and Insider at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Market Cap Below Minimum
Trip ifMarket cap rises above $400M from the current $395M.
- P2Death Cross Downtrend
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 4.1.
- P3High Yield Dividend Income
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 10% from the current 14.7%.
- P4Weak Quality No Upside
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 0.9.