Value
8.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.8 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
ITRG · Why this verdict
Why Integra Resources (ITRG) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ITRG screens as deeply undervalued with an outsized analyst-implied upside, but a likely commodity-cycle earnings peak, consecutive earnings misses, a severe earnings-quality red flag, and small-cap constraints temper the case for adding to the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
ITRG screens as deeply undervalued with analyst price targets implying very large upside, and the engine's own asymmetry ratio sits at an extreme level. Reward-to-risk math | The stock should progress meaningfully toward the analyst target over the next 12 months given the outsized risk-reward setup. | →Stable |
| CounterThis is flagged as a commodity-cycle peak — EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge, so the forward estimate may be built on stale spot pricing with mean-reversion risk unpriced. | ||
The engine's materials-cycle-peak gate failed, flagging that the low forward-to-trailing earnings ratio suggests earnings may be at a cyclical peak tied to elevated commodity prices. Warnings | If the cycle-peak concern is overstated, revenue and earnings should continue growing rather than reverting over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterPrecious-metals cycles can extend longer than models assume if commodity prices remain structurally elevated. | ||
ITRG has missed earnings estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, an inconsistency the bear case specifically calls out. Bear case | The earnings surprise trend should turn back toward consistent beats for the miss pattern to be considered resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise across all 4 quarters remains positive overall, suggesting the misses haven't been severe enough to outweigh the beats. | ||
Despite an elite Piotroski F-Score, the engine flags a severe earnings-quality red flag with free-cash-flow-to-net-income deeply negative, indicating reported earnings are far from being backed by cash generation. Quality breakdown | The free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio should improve materially toward positive territory over the next few quarters for the quality concern to ease. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy negative free-cash-flow-to-net-income at a mining company can reflect large capex investment in mine development rather than a genuine earnings-quality problem, especially alongside a perfect Piotroski score. | ||
At its current market cap, ITRG sits below the engine's institutional-reach threshold, and the stock trades well off its 52-week high, a large drawdown reflected in its speculative suitability rating. Suitability rationale | Should the company grow and the drawdown recover, this constraint should ease and support a valuation re-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterPersistent small-cap, speculative-mining status could mean this constraint never resolves, keeping the stock volatile and overlooked indefinitely. | ||
ITRG screens as deeply undervalued with analyst price targets implying very large upside, and the engine's own asymmetry ratio sits at an extreme level.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The stock should progress meaningfully toward the analyst target over the next 12 months given the outsized risk-reward setup.
CounterThis is flagged as a commodity-cycle peak — EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge, so the forward estimate may be built on stale spot pricing with mean-reversion risk unpriced.
The engine's materials-cycle-peak gate failed, flagging that the low forward-to-trailing earnings ratio suggests earnings may be at a cyclical peak tied to elevated commodity prices.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- If the cycle-peak concern is overstated, revenue and earnings should continue growing rather than reverting over the next several quarters.
CounterPrecious-metals cycles can extend longer than models assume if commodity prices remain structurally elevated.
ITRG has missed earnings estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, an inconsistency the bear case specifically calls out.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The earnings surprise trend should turn back toward consistent beats for the miss pattern to be considered resolved.
CounterThe average surprise across all 4 quarters remains positive overall, suggesting the misses haven't been severe enough to outweigh the beats.
Despite an elite Piotroski F-Score, the engine flags a severe earnings-quality red flag with free-cash-flow-to-net-income deeply negative, indicating reported earnings are far from being backed by cash generation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio should improve materially toward positive territory over the next few quarters for the quality concern to ease.
CounterHeavy negative free-cash-flow-to-net-income at a mining company can reflect large capex investment in mine development rather than a genuine earnings-quality problem, especially alongside a perfect Piotroski score.
At its current market cap, ITRG sits below the engine's institutional-reach threshold, and the stock trades well off its 52-week high, a large drawdown reflected in its speculative suitability rating.
→StableSuitability rationale
- Expectation
- Should the company grow and the drawdown recover, this constraint should ease and support a valuation re-rating.
CounterPersistent small-cap, speculative-mining status could mean this constraint never resolves, keeping the stock volatile and overlooked indefinitely.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.6 |
| ROA | 9.3 |
| Gross margin | 5.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -286% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.6 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 7.6 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 76)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 123%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 0.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 9.7 |
| volatility | 0.2 |
| beta | 4.4 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=5.2x,ratio=0.08x
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
5.94
Upside
+89.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 76
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 8.6 (strongest), but EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Sentiment at 7.0, and Momentum at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 1.7, Peer rank at 2.5, and Growth at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.94 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value With Massive Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst price target is cut by more than 30% within 2 quarters, confirming the outsized upside estimate was unreliable.
- P2Commodity Cycle Peak Risk
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters, contradicting the cycle-peak concern.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe next 2 quarterly earnings reports both beat consensus estimates by more than 5%, breaking the recent miss pattern.
- P4Earnings Quality Red Flag Despite Strong Piotroski
Trip ifFree-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio rises above -50%, improving from the current deeply negative reading.
- P5Small Cap Institutional Constraint
Trip ifMarket capitalization exceeds $5B, removing the small-cap institutional-access constraint this thesis relies on.