Value
9.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
ITG · Why this verdict
Why ITG (ITG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ITG is deeply discounted (forward P/E 6.0x, 150.4% upside to the analyst target) with 38% YoY growth and rising revenue, but quality (3.5, below the 4.0 floor) and a 70% drawdown with broken momentum keep the engine at avoid.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 3.5, below the 4.0 floor, with gross and net margin components at 0.0, an operating margin component of 2.3 and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Margin components improve and quality rises above 4.0 within 12 months as growth scales. | →Stable |
| CounterThin margins are common in engineering and construction contracting, and the last quarter's EPS of $0.10 was only slightly below the $0.11 estimate. | ||
Forward P/E is 6.0x with a PEG of 0.02, and the analyst target of $14.50 sits 150.4% above the $5.79 price. Valuation breakdown | Price converges toward the $14.50 analyst target as forward earnings are delivered over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 150% implied upside with light analyst coverage and a PEG of 0.02 suggests stale or inflated estimates; the low multiple may be a value trap. | ||
Growth is strong at 38% YoY, and quarterly revenue rose to $404.6M in the June 2026 quarter from $292.4M a year earlier, with a $440.7M estimate for next quarter. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stays above $400M and reaches the $440.7M estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo of the four revenue quarters are provisional yfinance figures, and growth in engineering and construction can be lumpy and project-driven. | ||
Momentum is 2.3, below the 4.5 gate, with falling on-balance volume and a 52-week position component of 0.0 after a 70% drawdown. Momentum breakdown | Momentum rises above 4.5 and price recovers from its 52-week low area over 12 months. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterA 70% drawdown alongside 38% growth and a forward P/E of 6.0x may indicate the selloff is overdone and a rebound could be sharp. | ||
The latest quarter's EPS of $0.10 was in line with the $0.11 estimate, a -9.96% surprise, and the next report is in 24 days. Avg surprise pct | EPS meets or exceeds consensus at the next report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith only one quarter of history, surprise data is too thin to confirm earnings reliability. | ||
Quality is 3.5, below the 4.0 floor, with gross and net margin components at 0.0, an operating margin component of 2.3 and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margin components improve and quality rises above 4.0 within 12 months as growth scales.
CounterThin margins are common in engineering and construction contracting, and the last quarter's EPS of $0.10 was only slightly below the $0.11 estimate.
Forward P/E is 6.0x with a PEG of 0.02, and the analyst target of $14.50 sits 150.4% above the $5.79 price.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price converges toward the $14.50 analyst target as forward earnings are delivered over 12 months.
CounterA 150% implied upside with light analyst coverage and a PEG of 0.02 suggests stale or inflated estimates; the low multiple may be a value trap.
Growth is strong at 38% YoY, and quarterly revenue rose to $404.6M in the June 2026 quarter from $292.4M a year earlier, with a $440.7M estimate for next quarter.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $400M and reaches the $440.7M estimate.
CounterTwo of the four revenue quarters are provisional yfinance figures, and growth in engineering and construction can be lumpy and project-driven.
Momentum is 2.3, below the 4.5 gate, with falling on-balance volume and a 52-week position component of 0.0 after a 70% drawdown.
Tripped↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum rises above 4.5 and price recovers from its 52-week low area over 12 months.
CounterA 70% drawdown alongside 38% growth and a forward P/E of 6.0x may indicate the selloff is overdone and a rebound could be sharp.
The latest quarter's EPS of $0.10 was in line with the $0.11 estimate, a -9.96% surprise, and the next report is in 24 days.
↑ImprovingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS meets or exceeds consensus at the next report.
CounterWith only one quarter of history, surprise data is too thin to confirm earnings reliability.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 1.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Volume surge (4.7x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.7 |
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 218%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.4 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 7.2 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.9 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.1 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 25, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -74% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.2<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.5, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Quality at 3.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Large Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $8, cutting upside to less than 40% from $5.79.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $300M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Weak Margins Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Broken Trend Negative MomentumTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below the $5.38 stop level, more than 7% under $5.79.
- P5Earnings In Line Catalyst Ahead
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below -10% for 2 consecutive quarters.