Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
ITG · Why this verdict
Why ITG (ITG) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ITG screens cheap with strong revenue growth near 38% and active insider and institutional buying, but quality sits just below the engine's floor with no clear competitive moat, and the reward/risk setup fell just short of the engine's asymmetry bar.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality screens just below the engine's floor at 3.5 versus the 4.0 minimum, with the data specifically flagging no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | The quality read stays below the floor over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth is strong at about 38% year over year and the valuation still screens attractively cheap, a combination that could eventually pull the quality read higher. | ||
The stock trades cheap on a forward basis, with a forward P/E near 13.3x and a PEG of 0.01, alongside revenue growth the data flags as strong at about 38% year over year. Valuation breakdown | The combination of cheap valuation and strong growth persists over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterQuality screens below the engine's floor, so the cheapness could reflect a genuine business-quality discount rather than a market mispricing. | ||
The risk/reward setup came close but still fell short of the engine's bar, with an asymmetry ratio of about 1.25-to-1 against a 1.5-to-1 minimum, driven by roughly 18% upside to target against about 15% downside to the stop. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio stays below the engine's 1.5 minimum over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutions are noted as accumulating and insiders have been net buyers, both potentially offsetting signals to the thin quantitative reward/risk. | ||
At about $1.6 billion in market cap, the stock sits below the level where institutional investors typically engage, per the engine's classification. Edge rationale | Market cap stays below the institutional-reach threshold over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA recent analyst was detected in the news coverage, a potential catalyst that could draw more attention and institutional interest. | ||
Quality screens just below the engine's floor at 3.5 versus the 4.0 minimum, with the data specifically flagging no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality read stays below the floor over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth is strong at about 38% year over year and the valuation still screens attractively cheap, a combination that could eventually pull the quality read higher.
The stock trades cheap on a forward basis, with a forward P/E near 13.3x and a PEG of 0.01, alongside revenue growth the data flags as strong at about 38% year over year.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The combination of cheap valuation and strong growth persists over the next 12 months.
CounterQuality screens below the engine's floor, so the cheapness could reflect a genuine business-quality discount rather than a market mispricing.
The risk/reward setup came close but still fell short of the engine's bar, with an asymmetry ratio of about 1.25-to-1 against a 1.5-to-1 minimum, driven by roughly 18% upside to target against about 15% downside to the stop.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio stays below the engine's 1.5 minimum over the next 12 months.
CounterInstitutions are noted as accumulating and insiders have been net buyers, both potentially offsetting signals to the thin quantitative reward/risk.
At about $1.6 billion in market cap, the stock sits below the level where institutional investors typically engage, per the engine's classification.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- Market cap stays below the institutional-reach threshold over the next 12 months.
CounterA recent analyst was detected in the news coverage, a potential catalyst that could draw more attention and institutional interest.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Volume surge (2.2x avg) on up move
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 31%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $19,200 (0.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.0 |
| quality rank | 0.9 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.8 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 3.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:64d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.03
Upside
+14.1%
Downside
13.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.0<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 1.03.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.0, and Momentum at 8.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Catalyst at 3.3, and Quality at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor No Moat
Trip ifThe quality score rises above 4.0 (the engine's floor), up from about 3.5 currently.
- P2Strong Growth Cheap Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0, up from 0.01 currently.
- P3Thin Asymmetry Just Below Bar
Trip ifThe asymmetry ratio rises above 1.5, clearing the engine's bar from about 1.25 currently.
- P4Below Institutional Reach Small Cap
Trip ifMarket capitalization rises above $5 billion, moving the stock out of the small-cap institutional-reach constraint.