Value
9.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
ITG · Why this verdict
Why ITG (ITG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ITG is a fast-growing small-cap (revenue up about 38% YoY) trading at a forward P/E of 4.7x, but business quality is below minimum, momentum is negative, the stock is down 76% from its 52-week high and earnings arrive in 2 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is weak at 3.5/10, below the 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat and very thin margins. Quality breakdown | Quality score improves above 4.0 as margins rise with revenue scale. | →Stable |
| CounterRapid growth of 38% may lift margins through operating leverage, and the current ratio score of 9.4 indicates liquidity is not a near-term problem. | ||
Revenue is growing about 38% year over year, with June-quarter revenue of $404.6M versus $292.4M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue keeps growing above 25% YoY toward the $443.7M next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterSome revenue quarters use provisional yfinance data rather than filed figures, and growth is not translating into margins (gross and net margin scores are 0.0). | ||
ITG trades at a forward P/E of 4.7x and a PEG of 0.02, described as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E remains below 8x as earnings estimates are met, leaving room for re-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterThe cheap multiple may be a value trap: two of five value-trap signals are flagged, including high leverage (D/E 9.7) and material insider selling (13 sells). | ||
The stock is in a downtrend with falling on-balance volume (volume distribution) and sits 76% below its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price stabilizes above the $4.25 stop level and on-balance volume stops falling. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMACD is improving and the technical score shows support/resistance and Bollinger readings in healthy territory, so the stock may be basing after a deep drawdown. | ||
Earnings are due on 2026-11-10, 2 days away, and the only recent quarter was in line to slightly below estimates (EPS $0.10 vs $0.11, about -10%). Earnings | The upcoming report meets or beats the EPS estimate and confirms the revenue ramp. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith only one reported quarter of history, the earnings track record is too thin to judge and a miss after a 76% drawdown could trigger another leg down. | ||
Business quality is weak at 3.5/10, below the 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat and very thin margins.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score improves above 4.0 as margins rise with revenue scale.
CounterRapid growth of 38% may lift margins through operating leverage, and the current ratio score of 9.4 indicates liquidity is not a near-term problem.
Revenue is growing about 38% year over year, with June-quarter revenue of $404.6M versus $292.4M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue keeps growing above 25% YoY toward the $443.7M next-quarter estimate.
CounterSome revenue quarters use provisional yfinance data rather than filed figures, and growth is not translating into margins (gross and net margin scores are 0.0).
ITG trades at a forward P/E of 4.7x and a PEG of 0.02, described as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E remains below 8x as earnings estimates are met, leaving room for re-rating.
CounterThe cheap multiple may be a value trap: two of five value-trap signals are flagged, including high leverage (D/E 9.7) and material insider selling (13 sells).
The stock is in a downtrend with falling on-balance volume (volume distribution) and sits 76% below its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stabilizes above the $4.25 stop level and on-balance volume stops falling.
CounterMACD is improving and the technical score shows support/resistance and Bollinger readings in healthy territory, so the stock may be basing after a deep drawdown.
Earnings are due on 2026-11-10, 2 days away, and the only recent quarter was in line to slightly below estimates (EPS $0.10 vs $0.11, about -10%).
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The upcoming report meets or beats the EPS estimate and confirms the revenue ramp.
CounterWith only one reported quarter of history, the earnings track record is too thin to judge and a miss after a 76% drawdown could trigger another leg down.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 9.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 158%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.1 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 7.0 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 6.5 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.1 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:8.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
8.31
Upside
+124.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -72% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.6<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 8.31.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.3, and Sentiment at 7.8; the weakest are Quality at 3.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, and Momentum at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 8.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year quarterly revenue growth falls below 15% from about 38%.
- P2Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 10x from the current 4.7x because forward estimates are cut.
- P3Below Minimum Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score rises above 5.0 from the current 3.5.
- P4Downtrend With Distribution
Trip ifPrice closes above $5.50, more than 20% above the current $4.575, with rising on-balance volume.
- P5Imminent Earnings Event Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise at the 2026-11-10 report is above 0% and revenue exceeds $443M.