Value
2.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.2 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.6 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 42.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.94
- ▸Expensive valuation
IRMD · Why this verdict
Why iRadimed (IRMD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business carries a wide economic moat, operating margins of 27%, return on equity of 25%, and a perfect 9-out-of-9 financial health score — a combination of profitability, returns, and financial strength that ranks among the best in its peer group. Quality breakdown | Operating margins stay above 24% and return on equity remains above 20% over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall-cap franchises with wide moats can see competitive inroads if a larger incumbent dedicates resources to the segment; the financial health scores are backwards-looking and may not reflect an evolving competitive landscape. | ||
The put-to-call ratio stands at 4.0 and implied volatility is at 72%, levels that suggest the options market is pricing in significant near-term uncertainty despite the solid underlying fundamentals. Risk breakdown | The put-to-call ratio falls below 1.5 and implied volatility compresses below 40% as near-term event risk resolves. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put-to-call ratios in small-cap names with limited analyst coverage often reflect hedging by concentrated holders rather than broad bearish conviction; the signal may overstate the actual fundamental risk. | ||
The company posted three beats and one in-line result across the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 9.6%, suggesting the business is consistently under-promising and over-delivering on quarterly expectations. Earnings | The beat-or-in-line streak extends to six consecutive quarters and average surprise remains above 5% per period. | →Stable |
| CounterAverages can mask individual quarter volatility; the one in-line quarter within the streak shows the upside surprise is not perfectly consistent, and even a modest earnings miss at a 38x multiple would likely produce a sharp price reaction. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 38.6x and a price-to-growth ratio of 1.74, the shares are priced expensively relative to the growth profile, leaving the setup dependent on continued execution with no room for disappointment. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E compresses below 28x through earnings growth rather than price decline, demonstrating the valuation is being grown into. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh-quality franchises with wide economic moats and consistent double-digit earnings beats can sustain premium multiples for extended periods; 38x may simply reflect appropriate pricing for the business quality on offer. | ||
The business carries a wide economic moat, operating margins of 27%, return on equity of 25%, and a perfect 9-out-of-9 financial health score — a combination of profitability, returns, and financial strength that ranks among the best in its peer group.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins stay above 24% and return on equity remains above 20% over the next four reported quarters.
CounterSmall-cap franchises with wide moats can see competitive inroads if a larger incumbent dedicates resources to the segment; the financial health scores are backwards-looking and may not reflect an evolving competitive landscape.
The put-to-call ratio stands at 4.0 and implied volatility is at 72%, levels that suggest the options market is pricing in significant near-term uncertainty despite the solid underlying fundamentals.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio falls below 1.5 and implied volatility compresses below 40% as near-term event risk resolves.
CounterElevated put-to-call ratios in small-cap names with limited analyst coverage often reflect hedging by concentrated holders rather than broad bearish conviction; the signal may overstate the actual fundamental risk.
The company posted three beats and one in-line result across the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 9.6%, suggesting the business is consistently under-promising and over-delivering on quarterly expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat-or-in-line streak extends to six consecutive quarters and average surprise remains above 5% per period.
CounterAverages can mask individual quarter volatility; the one in-line quarter within the streak shows the upside surprise is not perfectly consistent, and even a modest earnings miss at a 38x multiple would likely produce a sharp price reaction.
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 38.6x and a price-to-growth ratio of 1.74, the shares are priced expensively relative to the growth profile, leaving the setup dependent on continued execution with no room for disappointment.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E compresses below 28x through earnings growth rather than price decline, demonstrating the valuation is being grown into.
CounterHigh-quality franchises with wide economic moats and consistent double-digit earnings beats can sustain premium multiples for extended periods; 38x may simply reflect appropriate pricing for the business quality on offer.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
iRadimed is a high-quality small-cap franchise with a wide economic moat, best-in-class margins, and a near-perfect financial health score, but the shares trade at a forward earnings multiple of 38.6x — a valuation that leaves little margin of safety — and an elevated options skew signals meaningful near-term uncertainty.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.3 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 4.9 |
| Moat | 8.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 25%
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 64% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
| EPS growth | 6.4 |
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.1 |
Insider
3.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $5,900,248 (0.457% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 9.7 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 5.8 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.5 |
- ▸High IV: 116%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.3 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 79.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.46%=HEAVY
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.06
Upside
-0.7%
Downside
11.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 8.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE, INSIDER:0.46%=HEAVY) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.06 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.3, Momentum at 7.3, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Value at 2.5, Technical at 3.0, and Insider at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Best In Class Quality
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 20% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Consistent Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the beat-or-in-line streak.
- P3Expensive Valuation Limits Upside
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 25x as earnings estimates rise more than 30% from current levels.
- P4Elevated Options Skew Uncertainty
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio falls below 1.5 for 4 or more consecutive weeks.