Value
7.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
IQI · Why this verdict
Why Invesco Quality Municipal Incom (IQI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Invesco Quality Municipal Income shows an attractive valuation and strong quality metrics with positive momentum near 52-week highs, but weak growth and a sub-institutional market cap keep the setup constrained despite otherwise solid fundamentals.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Value notes show a very low PEG ratio of 0.03 alongside an attractively-valued flag, indicating the fund trades cheaply relative to available growth metrics. Valuation breakdown | If this value read holds, the value score should stay elevated over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMunicipal income fund PEG ratios are not a meaningful growth-adjusted valuation measure the way they are for operating companies, so this reading may carry little genuine signal. | ||
Quality notes show a passing Rule of 40 score of 53 and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, alongside 44% margins, reflecting solid underlying fundamentals. Quality breakdown | If this quality strength holds, the Piotroski F-Score should stay at 7 out of 9 or higher over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThese corporate-style quality metrics apply awkwardly to a municipal bond closed-end fund, where credit risk and interest-rate sensitivity — not margins or Piotroski scoring — are the primary drivers of actual investment risk. | ||
Momentum notes show an overbought RSI of 73 with the fund near its 52-week high and rising on-balance volume, indicating stretched but positive momentum. Momentum breakdown | If momentum stays constructive, price should hold near its highs without a sharp reversal over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn overbought RSI at a 52-week high combined with the engine's own upside-exhaustion warning increases the risk of a near-term pullback rather than further gains. | ||
The fund's growth score of 2.7 out of 10 is its weakest dimension, contributing to the weak-growth flag in the bear case despite otherwise solid value and quality readings. Growth | If this growth weakness is accurate, the growth score should remain below 4.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth is a secondary consideration for a municipal income fund, whose core value proposition is stable tax-advantaged yield rather than growth, so a low growth score may carry limited relevance to the actual investment case. | ||
The engine notes the fund's $0.5B market cap sits below the threshold for institutional participation, constraining the investor base that could bid the fund toward fair value. Edge rationale | If this constraint persists, market cap should remain below the institutional-reach threshold over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMany small municipal closed-end funds never attract institutional flows regardless of size, so this constraint may persist indefinitely rather than resolve. | ||
Value notes show a very low PEG ratio of 0.03 alongside an attractively-valued flag, indicating the fund trades cheaply relative to available growth metrics.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- If this value read holds, the value score should stay elevated over the next 12 months.
CounterMunicipal income fund PEG ratios are not a meaningful growth-adjusted valuation measure the way they are for operating companies, so this reading may carry little genuine signal.
Quality notes show a passing Rule of 40 score of 53 and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, alongside 44% margins, reflecting solid underlying fundamentals.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- If this quality strength holds, the Piotroski F-Score should stay at 7 out of 9 or higher over the next 12 months.
CounterThese corporate-style quality metrics apply awkwardly to a municipal bond closed-end fund, where credit risk and interest-rate sensitivity — not margins or Piotroski scoring — are the primary drivers of actual investment risk.
Momentum notes show an overbought RSI of 73 with the fund near its 52-week high and rising on-balance volume, indicating stretched but positive momentum.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- If momentum stays constructive, price should hold near its highs without a sharp reversal over the next 12 months.
CounterAn overbought RSI at a 52-week high combined with the engine's own upside-exhaustion warning increases the risk of a near-term pullback rather than further gains.
The fund's growth score of 2.7 out of 10 is its weakest dimension, contributing to the weak-growth flag in the bear case despite otherwise solid value and quality readings.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- If this growth weakness is accurate, the growth score should remain below 4.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth is a secondary consideration for a municipal income fund, whose core value proposition is stable tax-advantaged yield rather than growth, so a low growth score may carry limited relevance to the actual investment case.
The engine notes the fund's $0.5B market cap sits below the threshold for institutional participation, constraining the investor base that could bid the fund toward fair value.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- If this constraint persists, market cap should remain below the institutional-reach threshold over the next 12 months.
CounterMany small municipal closed-end funds never attract institutional flows regardless of size, so this constraint may persist indefinitely rather than resolve.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.1 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 8.0 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.7 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 44%
- ▸Rule of 40: 53 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.6 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 4.7 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
Catalyst
4.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 9.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 9.3, Value at 7.1, and Quality at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 2.7, Momentum at 4.0, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation
Trip ifValue score falls below 5.0 out of 10 as the fund's valuation re-rates higher.
- P2Strong Quality Metrics
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Overbought Momentum Near Highs
Trip ifPrice falls more than 5% from the current level within 2 months.
- P4Weak Growth Dimension
Trip ifGrowth score rises above 5.0 out of 10 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Sub Institutional Market Cap
Trip ifMarket capitalization rises above $1 billion for 2 consecutive quarters.