Value
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.21
IOND · Why this verdict
Why Ionic Digital (IOND) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ionic Digital is a high-quality, fast-growing business (quality 8.4, 31% YoY growth, PEG 0.20) trading in a capitulation-style selloff, so the case is a temporary technical headwind against strong fundamentals, held back by thin asymmetry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 8.4 with a wide economic moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and gross and operating margin components at 9.9 and 10.0. Quality breakdown | Quality score stays above 7.0 and the Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMargin and moat scores may reflect peak-cycle conditions in a volatile capital markets business, and quality confidence is only 0.71. | ||
Growth is strong at 31% YoY with revenue and earnings growth components both at 10.0, and the PEG ratio is 0.20 even though forward P/E is 26.7x. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 20% YoY and the PEG ratio remains below 1.0. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of 26.7x already prices in strong growth, and any deceleration would quickly erode the low-PEG argument. | ||
Momentum is 2.8, below the 4.5 gate, with RSI at 13, price below the 200-day average and falling on-balance volume, while a volume surge is flagged on the oversold bounce setup. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5 over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI at 13 is an extreme reading; with falling on-balance volume the selling may persist, and an oversold bounce can fail. | ||
The analyst target of $72.25 is 15.0% above the $62.81 price against 12.5% downside to the stop, an asymmetry of 1.21 that misses the 1.5 gate. Upside pct | Asymmetry rises above 1.5 as price falls toward the $59.67 entry target or the analyst target rises. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe entry target of $59.67 is only a default 5% below price, so the asymmetry shortfall may be solved by simply waiting for a small pullback. | ||
Insiders show no net activity, $0 in buys and sells over 90 days, while institutions are accumulating. Insider transaction read | Institutional accumulation continues and insiders begin net buying over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNo insider buying during a selloff to RSI 13 may signal management sees no value at current prices. | ||
Quality is 8.4 with a wide economic moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and gross and operating margin components at 9.9 and 10.0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score stays above 7.0 and the Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 over the next 12 months.
CounterMargin and moat scores may reflect peak-cycle conditions in a volatile capital markets business, and quality confidence is only 0.71.
Growth is strong at 31% YoY with revenue and earnings growth components both at 10.0, and the PEG ratio is 0.20 even though forward P/E is 26.7x.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 20% YoY and the PEG ratio remains below 1.0.
CounterA forward P/E of 26.7x already prices in strong growth, and any deceleration would quickly erode the low-PEG argument.
Momentum is 2.8, below the 4.5 gate, with RSI at 13, price below the 200-day average and falling on-balance volume, while a volume surge is flagged on the oversold bounce setup.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterRSI at 13 is an extreme reading; with falling on-balance volume the selling may persist, and an oversold bounce can fail.
The analyst target of $72.25 is 15.0% above the $62.81 price against 12.5% downside to the stop, an asymmetry of 1.21 that misses the 1.5 gate.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Asymmetry rises above 1.5 as price falls toward the $59.67 entry target or the analyst target rises.
CounterThe entry target of $59.67 is only a default 5% below price, so the asymmetry shortfall may be solved by simply waiting for a small pullback.
Insiders show no net activity, $0 in buys and sells over 90 days, while institutions are accumulating.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Institutional accumulation continues and insiders begin net buying over the next 12 months.
CounterNo insider buying during a selloff to RSI 13 may signal management sees no value at current prices.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.4/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 9.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 8.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 31% YoY
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 14, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.4 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 55%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.9 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 6.9 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.6 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 3.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.3 |
| implied vol | 0.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 77%
- ▸Above max pain $40
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.21, quality 8.4/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
2.42
Upside
+31.5%
Downside
13.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.4) with weak momentum (3.4)
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.4 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 2.42 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.4, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Peer rank at 4.3, and Value at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.42 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Wide Moat
Trip ifQuality score falls below 6.0 from the current 8.4.
- P2Strong Growth Low Peg
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Capitulation Momentum Headwind
Trip ifPrice falls below the $55.49 stop level, more than 11% under $62.81.
- P4Thin Asymmetry Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $65, cutting upside to less than 4% from $62.81.
- P5No Insider Signal
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds $1M in any 90-day window.