Value
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
INSW · Why this verdict
Why International Seaways (INSW) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock currently trades at $81.41, above the analyst-derived price target of $80.95, leaving -0.6% to target; the original entry setup required upside to the target, and with that gap closed, the setup no longer supports new capital deployment at current levels. Warnings | The setup would be restored if the analyst consensus target is revised above $90.00, reopening more than 10% upside from the current price and reestablishing a positive reward-to-risk geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterThe underlying business scores 7.2 out of 10 overall and has delivered four consecutive earnings beats; a sustained beat pattern could prompt upward target revisions that re-open a compelling entry without requiring a price pullback. | ||
Free cash flow represents only 3% of reported net income — a red flag indicating that strong headline profits are not translating into cash; this divergence limits the practical ability to fund dividends, buybacks, or debt reduction from operating cash flow alone. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow rising above 30% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters would resolve the quality concern and confirm that earnings are converting to distributable cash. | →Stable |
| CounterThe business otherwise scores highly across multiple quality dimensions; the low free cash flow conversion may reflect working capital timing or capital deployment cycles that normalize over multiple periods rather than a structural earnings quality problem. | ||
Four consecutive quarters of earnings beats — the most recent delivering a 43.6% upside surprise — demonstrate a pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering on expectations that has driven strong momentum in the stock. Earnings | A fifth consecutive beat, particularly if it prompts upward estimate revisions, would validate the pattern and could support a target upgrade that restores entry eligibility. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative news sentiment (-0.67) suggests the newsflow surrounding the business has turned cautious; if macro or freight-market conditions deteriorate, even disciplined execution may not prevent guidance misses. | ||
More than half of revenue (52%) is concentrated in the Crude Tankers segment, exposing the earnings profile to the freight-rate cycle of a single market; a rate downturn in crude tankers would disproportionately impair reported results. Bear case | Crude Tankers segment contribution falling below 35% of total revenue over 4 quarters would indicate meaningful portfolio diversification and reduce this single-market dependency. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue grew 78% year-over-year, suggesting the business is executing well within its current concentration profile; the Crude Tankers segment's size reflects market leadership rather than a structural diversification failure. | ||
Return on equity of 27%, margins of 55%, a wide economic moat, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 designate this as a franchise with enduring competitive characteristics; at a pullback toward the prior entry target of $72.41, the fundamental value case would reassert itself attractively. Quality breakdown | A price decline back toward $72.41 — the support-anchored entry level — would restore the margin of safety that the current price has outrun. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume distribution (falling on-balance volume) suggests institutional holders may be reducing exposure at current levels rather than accumulating; this can persist even when fundamentals are strong. | ||
The stock currently trades at $81.41, above the analyst-derived price target of $80.95, leaving -0.6% to target; the original entry setup required upside to the target, and with that gap closed, the setup no longer supports new capital deployment at current levels.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The setup would be restored if the analyst consensus target is revised above $90.00, reopening more than 10% upside from the current price and reestablishing a positive reward-to-risk geometry.
CounterThe underlying business scores 7.2 out of 10 overall and has delivered four consecutive earnings beats; a sustained beat pattern could prompt upward target revisions that re-open a compelling entry without requiring a price pullback.
Free cash flow represents only 3% of reported net income — a red flag indicating that strong headline profits are not translating into cash; this divergence limits the practical ability to fund dividends, buybacks, or debt reduction from operating cash flow alone.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow rising above 30% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters would resolve the quality concern and confirm that earnings are converting to distributable cash.
CounterThe business otherwise scores highly across multiple quality dimensions; the low free cash flow conversion may reflect working capital timing or capital deployment cycles that normalize over multiple periods rather than a structural earnings quality problem.
Four consecutive quarters of earnings beats — the most recent delivering a 43.6% upside surprise — demonstrate a pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering on expectations that has driven strong momentum in the stock.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- A fifth consecutive beat, particularly if it prompts upward estimate revisions, would validate the pattern and could support a target upgrade that restores entry eligibility.
CounterNegative news sentiment (-0.67) suggests the newsflow surrounding the business has turned cautious; if macro or freight-market conditions deteriorate, even disciplined execution may not prevent guidance misses.
More than half of revenue (52%) is concentrated in the Crude Tankers segment, exposing the earnings profile to the freight-rate cycle of a single market; a rate downturn in crude tankers would disproportionately impair reported results.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Crude Tankers segment contribution falling below 35% of total revenue over 4 quarters would indicate meaningful portfolio diversification and reduce this single-market dependency.
CounterRevenue grew 78% year-over-year, suggesting the business is executing well within its current concentration profile; the Crude Tankers segment's size reflects market leadership rather than a structural diversification failure.
Return on equity of 27%, margins of 55%, a wide economic moat, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 designate this as a franchise with enduring competitive characteristics; at a pullback toward the prior entry target of $72.41, the fundamental value case would reassert itself attractively.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- A price decline back toward $72.41 — the support-anchored entry level — would restore the margin of safety that the current price has outrun.
CounterVolume distribution (falling on-balance volume) suggests institutional holders may be reducing exposure at current levels rather than accumulating; this can persist even when fundamentals are strong.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
International Seaways has compounded strong operational results — 27% return on equity, 55% margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and four consecutive earnings beats averaging 25.8% upside — into a stock price of $81.41 that has now exceeded the analyst price target of $80.95; with no positive upside remaining to the target and free cash flow converting at only 3% of net income, the original entry setup has been fully captured and patience is warranted for a pullback or a target revision before redeploying.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.0 |
| ROA | 7.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.5 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.2 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 27%
- ▸Strong margins: 55%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 3% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 78% YoY
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,923,510 (0.096% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 8.7 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 3.2 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 0.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.3 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 473.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-5.3% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.39
Upside
-5.3%
Downside
13.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.4=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of -0.39.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 7.9, and Value at 7.8; the weakest are Insider at 3.9, Technical at 4.9, and Momentum at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.39 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $90.00, reopening more than 10% upside above the current price of $81.41.
- P2Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the beat streak.
- P3Fcf Earnings Divergence
Trip ifFree cash flow rises above 30% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, resolving the earnings conversion concern.
- P4Crude Tanker Concentration
Trip ifCrude Tankers segment contribution falls below 35% of total revenue over 4 consecutive quarters.
- P5Strong Quality Value Foundation
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% or gross margin compresses below 40% for 2 consecutive quarters, from current levels of 27% ROE and 55% margins.