Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
INIO · Why this verdict
Why INNIO (INIO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
INNIO is an industrial machinery company growing 57% YoY with 67.6% upside to the analyst target, but a 62% drawdown, 21% short interest and a put/call ratio of 5.00 make the risk profile extreme.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
There is no competitive moat and margins are thin, with net margin scoring 1.4/10 despite a Piotroski F-Score of 6.7/10. Quality breakdown | Net margin improves and quality score rises above 5.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFast growth may compress margins further if the company has to discount to win share. | ||
Growth is strong at 57% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $659.5M to $1.17B over six reported quarters, and the company is an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stays above the $1.2B next-quarter estimate over the coming year. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue data is from mixed sources, and no moat (quality score 4.5) means growth could be competed away. | ||
Upside to the $27.32 analyst target is 67.6% against 15.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of about 4.5, with analyst upside near 93%. Estimated upside | Price recovers toward the $27.32 target as growth continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCoverage is light (dampened signal) and the stock is 62% off its 52-week high, so targets may be stale or the market may be pricing risk that analysts miss. | ||
The company has beaten estimates in both reported quarters, with an average surprise of 44.6%. Earnings track record | Beats continue at the next report in about 86 days. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOnly 2 quarters of earnings history are available, too few to establish a reliable pattern. | ||
Short interest is 21% and the put/call ratio is 5.00 with implied volatility of 96%, signaling intense bearish positioning. Key risks | Short interest falls below 15% and put/call below 2.0 as the stock stabilizes. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest after a 62% drawdown can fuel a squeeze if results keep beating estimates. | ||
There is no competitive moat and margins are thin, with net margin scoring 1.4/10 despite a Piotroski F-Score of 6.7/10.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin improves and quality score rises above 5.0.
CounterFast growth may compress margins further if the company has to discount to win share.
Growth is strong at 57% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $659.5M to $1.17B over six reported quarters, and the company is an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above the $1.2B next-quarter estimate over the coming year.
CounterRevenue data is from mixed sources, and no moat (quality score 4.5) means growth could be competed away.
Upside to the $27.32 analyst target is 67.6% against 15.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of about 4.5, with analyst upside near 93%.
↑ImprovingEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price recovers toward the $27.32 target as growth continues.
CounterCoverage is light (dampened signal) and the stock is 62% off its 52-week high, so targets may be stale or the market may be pricing risk that analysts miss.
The company has beaten estimates in both reported quarters, with an average surprise of 44.6%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- Beats continue at the next report in about 86 days.
CounterOnly 2 quarters of earnings history are available, too few to establish a reliable pattern.
Short interest is 21% and the put/call ratio is 5.00 with implied volatility of 96%, signaling intense bearish positioning.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 15% and put/call below 2.0 as the stock stabilizes.
CounterHigh short interest after a 62% drawdown can fuel a squeeze if results keep beating estimates.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 2.6 |
| Op margin | 6.6 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 57% YoY
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 9.0 |
| OBV | 4.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 91%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.4 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 7.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 21%
- ▸High IV: 95%
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
4.43
Upside
+66.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -62% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.43 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.4, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.5, Peer rank at 3.5, and Technical at 4.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Explosive Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Large Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $15.16 stop-loss level.
- P3Earnings Beats Strong Surprises
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Extreme Short Interest Bearish Options
Trip ifShort interest exceeds 30% of float from current 21%.
- P5No Moat Low Margins
Trip ifQuality score falls below 4.0 from current 4.5.