Value
7.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.20
- ▸Attractively valued
IGR · Why this verdict
Why CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate (IGR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate is in a technical breakout with a golden cross and bullish momentum, but an expensive valuation, a declining revenue base, and weak earnings quality warrant caution despite the bullish price action.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The value dimension flags an expensive valuation, reflected in a weak value component score, even as revenue growth declines. Valuation breakdown | If this valuation concern is accurate, the value score should remain weak over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReal estate asset managers often trade at premium multiples during periods of asset appreciation, so a high valuation reading alone doesn't guarantee mean reversion. | ||
Quality notes cite an earnings-quality red flag with free cash flow at just 47% of net income, and a failing Rule of 40 score of 4, suggesting reported profits aren't fully backed by cash generation. Quality breakdown | If this earnings-quality concern holds, the FCF-to-net-income ratio should remain weak over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReal estate asset managers often show temporary FCF/NI divergence due to timing of fee accruals and disbursements, which can reverse without indicating true earnings-quality deterioration. | ||
Growth notes show a 15% year-over-year revenue decline, the weakest reading tracked across the growth dimension. Growth breakdown | If this growth concern is accurate, revenue growth should remain negative over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReal estate asset management revenue is cyclical and tied to AUM/fee cycles, so a single down year may reverse without further deterioration. | ||
The technical setup shows a golden cross with price above all major moving averages and a bullish MACD reading, describing an active breakout pattern. Chart pattern detection | If the breakout holds, price should stay above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBreakouts occurring alongside a no-clear-edge classification and expensive valuation often fail once momentum-driven buyers exhaust, risking a rapid reversal. | ||
Insider activity data shows a bullish signal from a recent purchase, though the $2,002 transaction represents a negligible 0.000% of market cap. Insider | If insider conviction is genuine, buying should continue or scale up over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA single token purchase of this size carries essentially no informational value and may not reflect genuine insider conviction at all. | ||
The value dimension flags an expensive valuation, reflected in a weak value component score, even as revenue growth declines.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- If this valuation concern is accurate, the value score should remain weak over the next 12 months.
CounterReal estate asset managers often trade at premium multiples during periods of asset appreciation, so a high valuation reading alone doesn't guarantee mean reversion.
Quality notes cite an earnings-quality red flag with free cash flow at just 47% of net income, and a failing Rule of 40 score of 4, suggesting reported profits aren't fully backed by cash generation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- If this earnings-quality concern holds, the FCF-to-net-income ratio should remain weak over the next 12 months.
CounterReal estate asset managers often show temporary FCF/NI divergence due to timing of fee accruals and disbursements, which can reverse without indicating true earnings-quality deterioration.
Growth notes show a 15% year-over-year revenue decline, the weakest reading tracked across the growth dimension.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- If this growth concern is accurate, revenue growth should remain negative over the next 12 months.
CounterReal estate asset management revenue is cyclical and tied to AUM/fee cycles, so a single down year may reverse without further deterioration.
The technical setup shows a golden cross with price above all major moving averages and a bullish MACD reading, describing an active breakout pattern.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- If the breakout holds, price should stay above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months.
CounterBreakouts occurring alongside a no-clear-edge classification and expensive valuation often fail once momentum-driven buyers exhaust, risking a rapid reversal.
Insider activity data shows a bullish signal from a recent purchase, though the $2,002 transaction represents a negligible 0.000% of market cap.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- If insider conviction is genuine, buying should continue or scale up over the next 12 months.
CounterA single token purchase of this size carries essentially no informational value and may not reflect genuine insider conviction at all.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 0.1 |
| FCF quality | 1.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 13% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -7 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -23%
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $2,002 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
9.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 8.7 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.34>1.3, MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 9.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 9.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, and Value at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Peer rank at 3.9, and Catalyst at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Expensive Valuation Concern
Trip ifValue score rises above 5.0 out of 10 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio rises above 80% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Declining Revenue Base
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 5% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average for more than 3 consecutive weeks.
- P5Negligible Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $500,000 over any rolling 90-day period.