Value
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.9 |
| P/S | 7.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.2 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.91
IEX · Why this verdict
Why IDEX (IEX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has earned a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 and is ranked best-in-class for margins within its peer group — indicators of a business whose balance sheet strength, profitability, and operational efficiency sit near the top of the peer distribution. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above for four consecutive reported quarters, confirming that business quality metrics are durable. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect financial health score is backward-looking by construction; a specialty industrial business can see scores deteriorate quickly in a demand downturn, and the current score reflects a period of favorable conditions that may not persist through a full cycle. | ||
The company has beaten sell-side consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 6%, demonstrating consistent execution and suggesting the business is generating earnings at or above what analysts have modeled over a sustained period. Bull case | The beat streak extends to at least six quarters, with positive EPS surprises in both of the next two reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterAn average surprise of roughly 6% is modest; as the analyst community tightens its models around a consistent beater, the ability to continue outperforming grows more difficult, and even a small miss after four straight beats would likely be punished disproportionately at the current multiple. | ||
A golden-cross formation, price above all major moving averages, RSI at 64, and bullish MACD collectively indicate a stock in an orderly uptrend with broad technical demand supporting the advance — consistent with the breakout setup that has formed in recent weeks. Chart pattern detection | Price sustains above its 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues rising for at least six consecutive months. | →Stable |
| CounterA breakout formation after an extended run often precedes consolidation or pullback rather than an acceleration; RSI at 64 is approaching overbought territory for a stock already within 1% of its 52-week high, and volume-based signals can reverse quickly on any disappointing catalyst. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 24.1x and a PEG ratio of 1.90, the stock is priced for substantial growth delivery, and it has already surpassed its analyst consensus price target — meaning the risk/reward at current levels is unfavorable, with more potential downside than upside from here. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E multiple compresses below 18x while earnings estimates hold flat or grow, reflecting a normalization of the current valuation premium. | →Stable |
| CounterA premium multiple can persist for many quarters in a high-quality business with consistent execution; if the company continues to beat expectations, the multiple may re-rate upward and analysts may raise their targets, making the current level reasonable in retrospect. | ||
The company has earned a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 and is ranked best-in-class for margins within its peer group — indicators of a business whose balance sheet strength, profitability, and operational efficiency sit near the top of the peer distribution.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above for four consecutive reported quarters, confirming that business quality metrics are durable.
CounterA perfect financial health score is backward-looking by construction; a specialty industrial business can see scores deteriorate quickly in a demand downturn, and the current score reflects a period of favorable conditions that may not persist through a full cycle.
The company has beaten sell-side consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 6%, demonstrating consistent execution and suggesting the business is generating earnings at or above what analysts have modeled over a sustained period.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to at least six quarters, with positive EPS surprises in both of the next two reporting periods.
CounterAn average surprise of roughly 6% is modest; as the analyst community tightens its models around a consistent beater, the ability to continue outperforming grows more difficult, and even a small miss after four straight beats would likely be punished disproportionately at the current multiple.
A golden-cross formation, price above all major moving averages, RSI at 64, and bullish MACD collectively indicate a stock in an orderly uptrend with broad technical demand supporting the advance — consistent with the breakout setup that has formed in recent weeks.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price sustains above its 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues rising for at least six consecutive months.
CounterA breakout formation after an extended run often precedes consolidation or pullback rather than an acceleration; RSI at 64 is approaching overbought territory for a stock already within 1% of its 52-week high, and volume-based signals can reverse quickly on any disappointing catalyst.
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 24.1x and a PEG ratio of 1.90, the stock is priced for substantial growth delivery, and it has already surpassed its analyst consensus price target — meaning the risk/reward at current levels is unfavorable, with more potential downside than upside from here.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E multiple compresses below 18x while earnings estimates hold flat or grow, reflecting a normalization of the current valuation premium.
CounterA premium multiple can persist for many quarters in a high-quality business with consistent execution; if the company continues to beat expectations, the multiple may re-rate upward and analysts may raise their targets, making the current level reasonable in retrospect.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The company earns a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, and carries strong price momentum with a golden-cross formation and rising volume accumulation; the principal constraint is that the share price has already exceeded its analyst consensus target, the reward-to-risk is negative at current levels, and a forward price-to-earnings multiple above 24x with a PEG of 1.90 leaves little room for valuation expansion.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 4.9 |
| Op margin | 8.0 |
| Net margin | 7.2 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 7.2 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
| EPS growth | 7.6 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $3,311,195 (0.020% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 4.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.8 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 130.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.41
Upside
-7.1%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.41 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, Quality at 6.9, and Catalyst at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Peer rank at 4.0, and Value at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Pristine Financial Health Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Consistent Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Strong Technical Momentum Breakout
Trip ifPrice falls below its 200-day moving average and RSI drops below 40 for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Stretched Valuation Limits Return
Trip ifForward P/E multiple compresses below 18x while forward earnings estimates remain within 5% of current levels.